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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000389

MQ-000389

Como v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League · Thu 10 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 54.4% · confidence 90
בוטל
Fair price
1.84
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTCfc8e5…2646
fc8e568d0ea994d2ff07da858ed53246c21afff9557a104585589d5b162b2646
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb857e008gr694srnzb772",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.544448,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC7f1df…a458
7f1dfcf28b2409f1f0b380adf81e2e3aedd5de89f19f34b50c9c1fc2b8eaa458
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb857e008gr694srnzb772",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.544448,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.4% · UNDER 45.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000389

OU25 · OVER · 68.4% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.46
Market price
1.57
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.2 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC2e80d…1e39
2e80d4faa664a067875ab5a6a343fec39e9f6f36687ad11b70dd5ed47b6e1e39
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvy4dr007ir6faxfhbvyij",
 "edge": 0.081926,
 "fairOdds": 1.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.57,
 "modelProbability": 0.684458,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000389",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC21283…e135
21283fe23c58ce00d1df75a475b0ef109279b04f120a0cf11b130b117899e135
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvy4dr007ir6faxfhbvyij",
 "edge": 0.081926,
 "fairOdds": 1.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.57,
 "modelProbability": 0.684458,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000389",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 68.4% · UNDER 31.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.57
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000389.v2

OU25 · OVER · 73.7% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.36
Market price
1.53
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
11.7 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTCb545d…1640
b545d1af813847eba2bffe9a229ce0dfaf048659a723d8f80b9f057087a01640
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mpuq0024r63ke2gip1nu",
 "edge": 0.117086,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.737433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000389.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC64a6a…3236
64a6acaf7a4a81df8af8cd0d8decb0b23a8aa68d1fcf5da76360515408613236
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mpuq0024r63ke2gip1nu",
 "edge": 0.117086,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.737433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000389.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 73.7% · UNDER 26.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.53
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000389.v3

OU25 · OVER · 73.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Official lineup
פגיעה
Fair price
1.36
Market price
1.44
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.7 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 17:05 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 17:05 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 17:05 UTCa5f5a…00bf
a5f5af6efebaa0f280df514aa664ff8c75879f7fd092d2cb05f708e02b0800bf
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvs95b800elr6tdekfg7ac2",
 "edge": 0.077475,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T17:05:37.735Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.7338,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000389.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:05:37.735Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:32 UTC37067…ac68
370674e18a5342f8bd4a1ad717ffff86d2c0722e8cbc8df79323b6c17b5dac68
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvs95b800elr6tdekfg7ac2",
 "edge": 0.077475,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T17:05:37.735Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.7338,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000389.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000389.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:32:04.727Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 73.4% · UNDER 26.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 17:05Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 17:05Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.44
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.