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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000391

MQ-000391

SK Slavia Praha v Lens · UEFA Champions League · Thu 10 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 65
בוטל
Fair price
2.09
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC212ea…dd18
212eaf8c317e2edfa288a8c8720ecf2b5e8347b97de8acc0e9bfbd3a6cf9dd18
{
 "confidenceScore": 65,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb8acv00agr694zm32d9bt",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCb3694…ea31
b3694f6aa27a272f6929b48c2a5caef1ecdd96617fdf89e81fbbf1c969cfea31
{
 "confidenceScore": 65,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb8acv00agr694zm32d9bt",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000391

1X2 · AWAY · 53.6% · confidence 68 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.87
Market price
2.70
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
18.5 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCde76e…e871
de76e2b7d17c582667af8c8a40dd371da7b48c804b8a21c0805971c436b3e871
{
 "confidenceScore": 68,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvybrp009ir6fan20ev050",
 "edge": 0.185449,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC25b84…4d24
25b84a3aa32b80ba6a92e9d37166c7f581d12eed8ceb87e92050b5766e764d24
{
 "confidenceScore": 68,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvybrp009ir6fan20ev050",
 "edge": 0.185449,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.70
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000391.v2

1X2 · HOME · 41.7% · confidence 53 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.40
Market price
2.62
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.7 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTCa28d8…1875
a28d85e1e8e49739bd7830850f32a02e63dffcf452916924a89a99bf6bfe1875
{
 "confidenceScore": 53,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mult0044r63ke6u6mzs8",
 "edge": 0.057123,
 "fairOdds": 2.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.417351,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCc516d…1d22
c516d0f121f6239bc5df7bdaeda28ea0ce38c231627f77ebd7e07dc8045f1d22
{
 "confidenceScore": 53,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mult0044r63ke6u6mzs8",
 "edge": 0.057123,
 "fairOdds": 2.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.417351,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 41.7% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 33.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.62
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000391.v3

1X2 · HOME · 38.7% · confidence 52 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.58
Market price
2.62
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.7 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC207f3…1051
207f396dcb71ac90eff39d9b6e28adeac80d13a9d8b12d6ebb9365b196d41051
{
 "confidenceScore": 52,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbhc7y0024r6mv5uf6ka1t",
 "edge": 0.027105,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC10211…09b3
10211be4b386b62e0cbee73fb52236b1a745650e048c7609a8f289d1367a09b3
{
 "confidenceScore": 52,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbhc7y0024r6mv5uf6ka1t",
 "edge": 0.027105,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 38.7% · DRAW 25.2% · AWAY 36.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 09:19Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 09:19Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.62
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000391.v4

1X2 · HOME · 41.7% · confidence 53 · reason: Official lineup
החטאה
Fair price
2.40
Market price
2.62
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.7 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 17:05 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 17:05 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 17:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 17:05 UTCf2128…8df9
f2128f4f47cb9ac92e41d2a4656eda084e0f7a645fa4b13ba744198d40608df9
{
 "confidenceScore": 53,
 "dataQualityScore": 32,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvs991a00fdr6td787v9s8w",
 "edge": 0.057092,
 "fairOdds": 2.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T17:05:37.735Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.417351,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:05:37.735Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:32 UTC4d54c…33db
4d54cf96cf773c386c002ae6fde2fd5bafb0d0da6a12863d992c7240401933db
{
 "confidenceScore": 53,
 "dataQualityScore": 32,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvs991a00fdr6td787v9s8w",
 "edge": 0.057092,
 "fairOdds": 2.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc8b5005gr6kger8euywl",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T17:05:37.735Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.417351,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000391.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000391.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:32:04.727Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 41.7% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 33.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 17:05Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 17:05Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.62
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.