MQ-000392
Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga · Fri 11 Sept · 18:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 2.19
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 11 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTCcbd46…6ef9
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3uzo04b8js04mbo4j76k",
"edge": 0.077598,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfijr2003gr6ycvaf96174",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.19,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000392",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordFri 11 Sept · 16:32 UTC0db0e…6846
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3uzo04b8js04mbo4j76k",
"edge": 0.077598,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfijr2003gr6ycvaf96174",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.19,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000392",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T16:32:04.715Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 19:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 19:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- not recorded for this prediction
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.19
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000392
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 2.39
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 11.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 11 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC43ff3…dec1
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqkfid0002r6dsi63xahmp",
"edge": 0.111933,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfijr2003gr6ycvaf96174",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.39,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000392.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000392",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordFri 11 Sept · 16:32 UTC22108…85de
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqkfid0002r6dsi63xahmp",
"edge": 0.111933,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfijr2003gr6ycvaf96174",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.39,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000392.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000392",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T16:32:04.715Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.39
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.