MQ-000399
Sevilla v Valencia · La Liga · Fri 11 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.27
- Market price
- 2.27
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 11 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTCc932c…5a66
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3y0904fgjs04u46enum2",
"edge": 0.02199,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfi4ky0022r6ycy5vave9z",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.27,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000399",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordFri 11 Sept · 17:02 UTCa58f1…6316
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3y0904fgjs04u46enum2",
"edge": 0.02199,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfi4ky0022r6ycy5vave9z",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.27,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000399",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T17:02:04.631Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 44.0% · DRAW 29.1% · AWAY 26.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 19:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 19:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- not recorded for this prediction
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.27
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000399
- Fair price
- 2.27
- Market price
- 2.14
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 11 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC803c5…9411
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtuewbua0028r6cb3lvcqjh2",
"edge": -0.005105,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfi4ky0022r6ycy5vave9z",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.14,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000399.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000399",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordFri 11 Sept · 17:02 UTCd4159…55b4
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtuewbua0028r6cb3lvcqjh2",
"edge": -0.005105,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfi4ky0022r6ycy5vave9z",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.14,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000399.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000399",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T17:02:04.631Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 44.0% · DRAW 29.1% · AWAY 26.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.14
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000399.v2
- Fair price
- 2.27
- Market price
- 1.98
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 11 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTCecfd8…f53c
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqkv0j002mr6ds68mkdlny",
"edge": -0.041959,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfi4ky0022r6ycy5vave9z",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.98,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000399.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000399.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordFri 11 Sept · 17:02 UTCac5fb…dd50
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqkv0j002mr6ds68mkdlny",
"edge": -0.041959,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtmfi4ky0022r6ycy5vave9z",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.98,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000399.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000399.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T17:02:04.631Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 44.0% · DRAW 29.1% · AWAY 26.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.98
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.