PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000404

MQ-000404

Augsburg v Leverkusen · Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 75

בוטל

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 1.76
Probability gap: 16.2 percentage points
Generated: Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published: Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC18bee…013e

18bee054848fb1ff247a56fc23dd4e9a7eb70464fcebd37b7af12919fdac013e

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszg6lc005sr6szaqxn65uq",
 "edge": -0.162346,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000404",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTCa7ab2…c24a

a7ab28fba89d82e82b5e408d47e9b7333583d2df91ae9de684957ebe45d5c24a

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszg6lc005sr6szaqxn65uq",
 "edge": -0.162346,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000404",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-08 18:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-08 18:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.76
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000404

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 75 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 1.86
Probability gap: 13.5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC2ffcb…e434

2ffcba0695e8c68b5b0ac6027611431b8dab7d4c9861d2c40a27f13f6488e434

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty645la000er6l8846nz1m2",
 "edge": -0.134569,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.86,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000404.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000404",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTCea7e4…82e9

ea7e420a2b09c556dac333a9ecabaa420d876c66994a38188df5a7e9681182e9

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty645la000er6l8846nz1m2",
 "edge": -0.134569,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.86,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000404.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000404",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 09:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 09:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.86
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.