MQ-000405
Augsburg v Leverkusen · Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.57
- Market price
- 1.41
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC58bb6…76e4
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszg6lc005sr6szaqxn65uq",
"edge": -0.033772,
"fairOdds": 1.57,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.41,
"modelProbability": 0.636017,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000405",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC404ad…3e95
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszg6lc005sr6szaqxn65uq",
"edge": -0.033772,
"fairOdds": 1.57,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.41,
"modelProbability": 0.636017,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000405",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 63.6% · UNDER 36.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.41
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000405
- Fair price
- 1.57
- Market price
- 1.35
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC603e6…8066
{
"confidenceScore": 78,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyce2l10008r6llzo3otsye",
"edge": -0.060925,
"fairOdds": 1.57,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.35,
"modelProbability": 0.635704,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000405.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000405",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 12:32 UTC36e71…63e8
{
"confidenceScore": 78,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyce2l10008r6llzo3otsye",
"edge": -0.060925,
"fairOdds": 1.57,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugczt007ir6v24k9uq442",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.35,
"modelProbability": 0.635704,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000405.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000405",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:32:05.170Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 63.6% · UNDER 36.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.35
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.