MQ-000411
Freiburg v M'gladbach · Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.68
- Market price
- 1.56
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTCd55be…7be9
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszgidf009ar6szfol2ag3i",
"edge": -0.003164,
"fairOdds": 1.68,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugegh007wr6v2bqige2tg",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.56,
"modelProbability": 0.595808,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000411",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTCcca70…2ec1
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszgidf009ar6szfol2ag3i",
"edge": -0.003164,
"fairOdds": 1.68,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugegh007wr6v2bqige2tg",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.56,
"modelProbability": 0.595808,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000411",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 59.6% · UNDER 40.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.56
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000411
- Fair price
- 1.68
- Market price
- 1.50
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC6327c…c8f3
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyce9v20016r6ll1k2ghwwv",
"edge": -0.030497,
"fairOdds": 1.68,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugegh007wr6v2bqige2tg",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.5,
"modelProbability": 0.595438,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000411.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000411",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 12:32 UTC06720…7d2f
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyce9v20016r6ll1k2ghwwv",
"edge": -0.030497,
"fairOdds": 1.68,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugegh007wr6v2bqige2tg",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.5,
"modelProbability": 0.595438,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000411.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000411",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:32:05.170Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 59.5% · UNDER 40.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.50
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.