MQ-000413
Hoffenheim v Stuttgart · Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.42
- Market price
- 2.31
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC0e0ae…8103
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszgohx00b4r6szfty8jumu",
"edge": 0.003837,
"fairOdds": 2.42,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.412629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000413",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC7f6ed…0fee
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszgohx00b4r6szfty8jumu",
"edge": 0.003837,
"fairOdds": 2.42,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.412629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000413",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.3% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.31
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000413
- Fair price
- 2.35
- Market price
- 2.31
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC30b8f…e3cb
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtuewqpv003or6cb3uleesev",
"edge": 0.014923,
"fairOdds": 2.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.424979,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000413.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000413",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC248c4…086a
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtuewqpv003or6cb3uleesev",
"edge": 0.014923,
"fairOdds": 2.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.424979,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000413.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000413",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.5% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 30.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.31
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000413.v2
- Fair price
- 2.42
- Market price
- 2.31
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC52d78…30f9
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4njcf0068r63kko2qu06i",
"edge": 0.002075,
"fairOdds": 2.42,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.412629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000413.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000413.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC679a8…bfe4
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4njcf0068r63kko2qu06i",
"edge": 0.002075,
"fairOdds": 2.42,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.31,
"modelProbability": 0.412629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000413.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000413.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.3% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.31
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.