MQ-000414
Hoffenheim v Stuttgart · Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.37
- Market price
- 1.38
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTCcf798…2e2b
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszgohx00b4r6szfty8jumu",
"edge": 0.048407,
"fairOdds": 1.37,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.731166,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000414",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC51212…1e2b
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtszgohx00b4r6szfty8jumu",
"edge": 0.048407,
"fairOdds": 1.37,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.731166,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000414",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 73.1% · UNDER 26.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-08 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.38
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000414
- Fair price
- 1.39
- Market price
- 1.35
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC215bf…ec84
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbif3v0048r6mv9w6hz8yy",
"edge": 0.024756,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.35,
"modelProbability": 0.721385,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000414.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000414",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTCcb565…c032
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbif3v0048r6mv9w6hz8yy",
"edge": 0.024756,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.35,
"modelProbability": 0.721385,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000414.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000414",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 72.1% · UNDER 27.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 09:19Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 09:19Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.35
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000414.v2
- Fair price
- 1.39
- Market price
- 1.29
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC7e569…de99
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty64i6b002ir6l8jem7ssic",
"edge": -0.003003,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.721944,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000414.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000414.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 11:32 UTCe3e77…97ec
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty64i6b002ir6l8jem7ssic",
"edge": -0.003003,
"fairOdds": 1.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugarf0074r6v2gqbntyyj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.721944,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000414.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000414.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T11:32:03.921Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 72.2% · UNDER 27.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.29
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.