PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000427

MQ-000427

Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest · Premier League · Sat 12 Sept · 14:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 94

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 2.19
Probability gap: 3.6 percentage points
Generated: Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published: Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC6f20b…dd20

6f20bb85197aa497930e77ad6ca9a871ec0c9f2b2717ec6e299d8e9d66f8dd20

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszhi0k00j4r6sz9b4r7exa",
 "edge": -0.036424,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnuf7q90025r6v204a1ds74",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.19,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000427",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 12:02 UTCb0ee0…3d30

b0ee05e5108164467529a91496783f71fc82d30a2d4017457a90dcad9bdd3d30

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszhi0k00j4r6sz9b4r7exa",
 "edge": -0.036424,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnuf7q90025r6v204a1ds74",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.19,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000427",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:02:05.229Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-08 18:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-08 18:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.19
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000427

1X2 · HOME · 41.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.44
Market price: 2.18
Probability gap: 2.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCb8939…de67

b893987ba49b68c5d5676bbfeb3dc23c87ee121ded8eb6f261b5ec513a32de67

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvzxiw00cmr6fa33n6v7l4",
 "edge": -0.026018,
 "fairOdds": 2.44,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnuf7q90025r6v204a1ds74",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.18,
 "modelProbability": 0.409807,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000427.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000427",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 12:02 UTCa498b…907a

a498bfdb80164ee5cabc431632ee2934d82132f00f5e243cc0df95176ea9907a

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvzxiw00cmr6fa33n6v7l4",
 "edge": -0.026018,
 "fairOdds": 2.44,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnuf7q90025r6v204a1ds74",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.18,
 "modelProbability": 0.409807,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000427.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000427",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:02:05.229Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 41.0% · DRAW 28.2% · AWAY 30.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.18
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.