MQ-000448
Lorient v Toulouse · Ligue 1 · Sat 12 Sept · 18:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 2.61
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 12.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC14f02…6bb2
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw0nei00esr6faqceif741",
"edge": 0.126039,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.61,
"modelProbability": 0.489257,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000448",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTCb5984…4e58
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw0nei00esr6faqceif741",
"edge": 0.126039,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.61,
"modelProbability": 0.489257,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000448",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.9% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 25.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.61
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000448
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 2.59
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 16.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTCc5110…63ab
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw117pc003qr6yt7s82isfq",
"edge": 0.163811,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.59,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000448.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000448",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTCb2387…7c70
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw117pc003qr6yt7s82isfq",
"edge": 0.163811,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.59,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000448.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000448",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.59
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000448.v2
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 2.41
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTCfa969…6d14
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtycfmk8004kr6llzc8bztl4",
"edge": 0.134733,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.41,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000448.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000448.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC2c40d…d009
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtycfmk8004kr6llzc8bztl4",
"edge": 0.134733,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.41,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000448.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000448.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.41
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.