MQ-000449
Lorient v Toulouse · Ligue 1 · Sat 12 Sept · 18:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 1.79
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC4e83c…fb8b
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw0nei00esr6faqceif741",
"edge": -0.020268,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.79,
"modelProbability": 0.507436,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000449",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC18ce7…d0af
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw0nei00esr6faqceif741",
"edge": -0.020268,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.79,
"modelProbability": 0.507436,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000449",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 49.3% · UNDER 50.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.79
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000449
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 1.96
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC010f6…8997
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw117pc003qr6yt7s82isfq",
"edge": 0.023509,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.506359,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000449.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000449",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTCa3e1d…c5bf
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 77,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw117pc003qr6yt7s82isfq",
"edge": 0.023509,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.506359,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000449.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000449",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 50.6% · UNDER 49.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.96
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000449.v2
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 1.85
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 15:14 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 15:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 15:14 UTC2c8ed…9a93
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyj1k4d000wr6m3e58yif8v",
"edge": -0.003442,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T15:14:48.683Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.85,
"modelProbability": 0.50714,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000449.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000449.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T15:14:48.683Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTCee22d…2fde
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyj1k4d000wr6m3e58yif8v",
"edge": -0.003442,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnugs9i009br6v2lar9f0sf",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T15:14:48.683Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.85,
"modelProbability": 0.50714,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000449.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000449.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 50.7% · UNDER 49.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 15:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 15:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.85
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.