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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000451

MQ-000451

Atalanta v Cagliari · Serie A · Sat 12 Sept · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 51.0% · confidence 93
בוטל
Fair price
1.96
Market price
1.55
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
10.2 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked
Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC86338…09e0
863388aa97eb56ba59d91eb08ef2d520b38bedade4d6a4cce8e0908301e409e0
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttw0v8200gmr6fayfuxkej2",
 "edge": -0.101961,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.55,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC906df…e058
906df853ff2c06c4f0640ce1892a948d7d419069f212a93fcdec5b0eef0fe058
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttw0v8200gmr6fayfuxkej2",
 "edge": -0.101961,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.55,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.55
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000451

1X2 · HOME · 48.2% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.07
Market price
1.56
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
12.7 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Locked
Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTCe4dc3…5813
e4dc3dbd1e3cb183dffc4f659e721ded9df9e12842e771005c3be3ef8de55813
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulfy2h004wr632a20xs038",
 "edge": -0.126835,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.56,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000451",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC2a626…9736
2a626194546603a531e0832fe268ccde9954de4d95e81e75ceed754842b89736
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulfy2h004wr632a20xs038",
 "edge": -0.126835,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.56,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000451",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 21:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 21:10Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.56
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000451.v2

1X2 · HOME · 46.9% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.13
Market price
1.56
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
13.9 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
Locked
Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC9ccbf…e091
9ccbfa01b1315092ff1b6c559e28ae0ff72d33cf9b4f908377bc05192c4ee091
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtw11c870050r6ytgma3y0tx",
 "edge": -0.139014,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.56,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000451.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTCebc1a…5b51
ebc1a9eb200a6bc7e7065586578ab9f231fd639e9d273a72e18bc455f2055b51
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtw11c870050r6ytgma3y0tx",
 "edge": -0.139014,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.56,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000451.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 21:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 21:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.56
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000451.v3

1X2 · HOME · 46.9% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
החטאה
Fair price
2.13
Market price
1.69
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
9.3 percentage points
Generated
Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Published
Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Locked
Sat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC34ca4…a2b8
34ca428643b231c97bd323716371acbf4a22413da2f7fae3f2494b702bcea2b8
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty65pa70070r6l809hh7hkl",
 "edge": -0.09295,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.69,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000451.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 16:32 UTCe8627…872f
e86278a808fa99cc3578f0d3a88af546649bb82e5657ffdb49dbd14e2755872f
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty65pa70070r6l809hh7hkl",
 "edge": -0.09295,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnug2zu0064r6v2rw54cmf7",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.69,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000451.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000451.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T16:32:06.256Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-12 09:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-12 09:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.69
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.