MQ-000463
Sunderland v Arsenal · Premier League · Sat 12 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.86
- Market price
- 1.48
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCc1a20…f4b7
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1rf600n4r6fanpeoi5k6",
"edge": -0.105593,
"fairOdds": 1.86,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.48,
"modelProbability": 0.537772,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000463",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTCd8aa3…526a
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1rf600n4r6fanpeoi5k6",
"edge": -0.105593,
"fairOdds": 1.86,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.48,
"modelProbability": 0.537772,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000463",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 19.1% · DRAW 27.2% · AWAY 53.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.48
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000463
- Fair price
- 1.83
- Market price
- 1.58
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC4168f…69a7
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty6632w0098r6l80dx9x8by",
"edge": -0.056877,
"fairOdds": 1.83,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.58,
"modelProbability": 0.546835,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000463.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000463",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC6d791…dc14
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty6632w0098r6l80dx9x8by",
"edge": -0.056877,
"fairOdds": 1.83,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.58,
"modelProbability": 0.546835,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000463.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000463",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 17.7% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 54.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.58
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.