MQ-000464
Sunderland v Arsenal · Premier League · Sat 12 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.74
- Market price
- 1.81
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCfa000…3657
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1rf600n4r6fanpeoi5k6",
"edge": 0.050364,
"fairOdds": 1.74,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.81,
"modelProbability": 0.574048,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000464",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC1628a…bcf3
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1rf600n4r6fanpeoi5k6",
"edge": 0.050364,
"fairOdds": 1.74,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.81,
"modelProbability": 0.574048,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000464",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 42.6% · UNDER 57.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.81
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000464
- Fair price
- 1.71
- Market price
- 1.80
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC08d3a…8dfe
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4os3r00ayr63kph4zfxa4",
"edge": 0.059768,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.8,
"modelProbability": 0.584834,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000464.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000464",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC6db22…6cb7
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4os3r00ayr63kph4zfxa4",
"edge": 0.059768,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.8,
"modelProbability": 0.584834,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000464.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000464",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 41.5% · UNDER 58.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.80
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000464.v2
- Fair price
- 1.71
- Market price
- 1.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC66a35…b75f
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty6632w0098r6l80dx9x8by",
"edge": 0.035379,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.583682,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000464.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000464.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC72178…b49b
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty6632w0098r6l80dx9x8by",
"edge": 0.035379,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtnufaoc002xr6v2pjr5xte6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.583682,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000464.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000464.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 41.6% · UNDER 58.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.