PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000466

MQ-000466

Real Madrid v Vallecano · La Liga · Sat 12 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 69.8% · confidence 92

בוטל

Fair price: 1.43
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 15 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCa30af…e5d6

a30afbdfbbd88172baa8474bfb53f2c279c03280ce877be9cd38881b7170e5d6

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1yve00oyr6fagd1cyow4",
 "edge": -0.150441,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.698182,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTCe57b3…1c91

e57b31a1811b14f779105aea2054b5c81299e6d0b2f757213016784a3ceb1c91

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1yve00oyr6fagd1cyow4",
 "edge": -0.150441,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.698182,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 9.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000466

1X2 · HOME · 64.1% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.56
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 20.7 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 12:06 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 12:06 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 12:06 UTC327b8…4dac

327b8031210f314a4025441ee5d8645404aab7d505eb30c03bcb8b3b02334dac

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtu223h3006qr6lahz7va0fu",
 "edge": -0.207201,
 "fairOdds": 1.56,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T12:06:48.531Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.641422,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T12:06:48.531Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTCb0e8e…9272

b0e8e8406bb82d749f310e36462511307cd58fdaea9808efd16f03eb08b49272

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtu223h3006qr6lahz7va0fu",
 "edge": -0.207201,
 "fairOdds": 1.56,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T12:06:48.531Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.641422,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 64.1% · DRAW 20.0% · AWAY 15.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 12:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 12:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000466.v2

1X2 · HOME · 67.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.49
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 18.1 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 00:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 00:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 00:08 UTCc7d91…05de

c7d91cac0e3e7036c6724cb09f76e5f182503fba136323d27d4a9eaa97c305de

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmturtnl1005qr6okn3fljqbu",
 "edge": -0.180678,
 "fairOdds": 1.49,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T00:08:25.498Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.669812,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T00:08:25.498Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTCaeba7…2fa8

aeba733da3ac902ad46a47d9dc6a1a95b43adc498c965b95163117ab8f352fa8

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmturtnl1005qr6okn3fljqbu",
 "edge": -0.180678,
 "fairOdds": 1.49,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T00:08:25.498Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.669812,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 67.0% · DRAW 20.9% · AWAY 12.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 00:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 00:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000466.v3

1X2 · HOME · 69.8% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.43
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 15.4 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC49b56…298a

49b5690d3395223184ccd3bb2650d6f4583b5d7bdf4ffa14fbb432ed1d46298a

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkea40080r6mv351kwi15",
 "edge": -0.154494,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.698182,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTCef2c1…a98c

ef2c1acc35e1f7d8afbac7208bae36be4b44c97dd3bda2f4ed020b74f3b3a98c

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkea40080r6mv351kwi15",
 "edge": -0.154494,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.698182,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 9.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 09:19Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 09:19Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000466.v4

1X2 · HOME · 67.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.49
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 18.2 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 12:11 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 12:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 12:11 UTC047c8…1ed3

047c8ecd509b0a7c42777a878c31ca7e198aad85bfb920019501c0e444c91ed3

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvhp59m005qr6hqlpt83xd1",
 "edge": -0.1823,
 "fairOdds": 1.49,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T12:11:39.924Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.669812,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T12:11:39.924Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC62ec2…bb6b

62ec2635d0e2b8a5c55e60078f16898f9791bffb4619b75f0803704b62bdbb6b

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvhp59m005qr6hqlpt83xd1",
 "edge": -0.1823,
 "fairOdds": 1.49,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T12:11:39.924Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.669812,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 67.0% · DRAW 20.9% · AWAY 12.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 12:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 12:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000466.v5

1X2 · HOME · 68.2% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.47
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 17 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTCcb970…76b4

cb9705b655fbe1fe47a984c71e1af797cf7a543b1af15eab3203d5cc694476b4

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtw11oad006gr6yt697n03kt",
 "edge": -0.170345,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.68192,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC3d2b9…d179

3d2b9df92f3db09d1bc63a5b71f09b20b9e8d7fbc2cf3aaf721d3bbb0851d179

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtw11oad006gr6yt697n03kt",
 "edge": -0.170345,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.68192,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 68.2% · DRAW 21.3% · AWAY 10.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000466.v6

1X2 · HOME · 70.8% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.41
Market price: 1.11
Probability gap: 14.9 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC542e2…483b

542e23c34cc04c7c8ee511e755ed647ff642630be8a7a5cf211cde30e5a7483b

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqmlls0078r6dstakosljh",
 "edge": -0.149233,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.11,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC944cb…62cd

944cba6df0548b3b82e8db43faa2c1aa0d522c9b8683bbba204c2f01286462cd

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqmlls0078r6dstakosljh",
 "edge": -0.149233,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.11,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 70.8% · DRAW 19.9% · AWAY 9.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.11
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000466.v7

1X2 · HOME · 68.2% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.47
Market price: 1.11
Probability gap: 17.5 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 12:08 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 12:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 12:08 UTC201e4…687c

201e43d71d100793aa1cb7b24eead90c966a430fa97e021a24c4756ffbe8687c

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwwzlkp004qr661dgvgjeer",
 "edge": -0.174597,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T12:08:49.652Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.11,
 "modelProbability": 0.68192,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T12:08:49.652Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC5db00…8c9a

5db00bf5f9ea4080aa678bae333bf8c133cb96e30e7ccc32e58f046c06ed8c9a

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwwzlkp004qr661dgvgjeer",
 "edge": -0.174597,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T12:08:49.652Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.11,
 "modelProbability": 0.68192,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 68.2% · DRAW 21.3% · AWAY 10.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 12:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 12:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.11
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000466.v8

1X2 · HOME · 69.8% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.43
Market price: 1.12
Probability gap: 15.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC11ea7…72c4

11ea73e395f18c79f1af08441daede4460d7733288611a3f508c76f1ac9a72c4

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzkxik005wr6l4ofry4q39",
 "edge": -0.15269,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.697699,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC02e81…7d26

02e81d9f8a8447773e3722fb606e184f19e8c253e327924cc0e9f0ff44367d26

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzkxik005wr6l4ofry4q39",
 "edge": -0.15269,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.697699,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 9.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 06:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 06:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.12
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000466.v9

1X2 · HOME · 70.8% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.41
Market price: 1.13
Probability gap: 13.8 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTCd991d…9a96

d991d7ce697610f55a4fe53567d71edfffa7869506e0627f7225040c19d89a96

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty667zw00air6l8zpm53x8d",
 "edge": -0.138042,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.13,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC8f5b8…cd0e

8f5b8792b359252e7195514d3e2a3ee2b37c71b450f744c3ea283de6efb4cd0e

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty667zw00air6l8zpm53x8d",
 "edge": -0.138042,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.13,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 70.8% · DRAW 19.9% · AWAY 9.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 09:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 09:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.13
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 11 · previous MQ-000466.v10

1X2 · HOME · 69.8% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.43
Market price: 1.13
Probability gap: 14.5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC0caee…163e

0caee1dfed36c0c4fb27b8cae14aadf0f119cc77cb17f0cb363ae5dc1aec163e

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtycg54l0064r6lls1jj5fw8",
 "edge": -0.145168,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.13,
 "modelProbability": 0.697699,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC492a4…f28c

492a492505321379da223bbaa24b8c03b871a83c120792f36a480128e946f28c

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtycg54l0064r6lls1jj5fw8",
 "edge": -0.145168,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.13,
 "modelProbability": 0.697699,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000466.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000466.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 9.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 12:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 12:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.13
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.