PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000468

MQ-000468

Real Madrid v Vallecano · La Liga · Sat 12 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

BTTS · YES · 54.1% · confidence 92

בוטל

Fair price: 1.85
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC6718f…db77

6718fed91ec3737e8fa406a1be67b397f65d84bf1a2487d4875226380214db77

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1yve00oyr6fagd1cyow4",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.540509,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC6456f…6612

6456fd83d7c521ca7513e92d6c1faaaedb881cfc90a5a6f9b80e07a21e7e6612

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttw1yve00oyr6fagd1cyow4",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.540509,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 54.1% · NO 45.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000468

BTTS · YES · 55.9% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.79
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 12:06 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 12:06 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 12:06 UTC54c44…7d96

54c442a6b7b3bd8d784f83ccc1593d6456b004c7cf290e37b85d4e6d094f7d96

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtu223h3006qr6lahz7va0fu",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T12:06:48.531Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.558664,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T12:06:48.531Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC4942b…f41f

4942bbea3b5ea1145ff3ba90fb082249c4b9a1d9ebe514635225f8433d65f41f

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtu223h3006qr6lahz7va0fu",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T12:06:48.531Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.558664,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 55.9% · NO 44.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 12:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 12:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000468.v2

BTTS · YES · 53.6% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.86
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC89e4d…220d

89e4ddb2e1101cef319812117b68a51c84b8d7c4e9c6f923b734761d29a8220d

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkea40080r6mv351kwi15",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.86,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.536325,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC2cd7b…68b7

2cd7b7c51278bc0ce1b7fe0e02fc19dec381b8f8895cd75746cf525c434468b7

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkea40080r6mv351kwi15",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.86,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.536325,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 53.6% · NO 46.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 09:19Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 09:19Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000468.v3

BTTS · YES · 55.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.80
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 12:11 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 12:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 12:11 UTCc8ac7…b0ea

c8ac7b4353744fac979a31e9994bd8a35a797e88469b9406fcca02448b62b0ea

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvhp59m005qr6hqlpt83xd1",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.8,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T12:11:39.924Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.554402,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T12:11:39.924Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC0b913…d7c2

0b9131be51bc0d18822ea4413de97e3736f42f80d05d82f10333ce7ab465d7c2

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvhp59m005qr6hqlpt83xd1",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.8,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T12:11:39.924Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.554402,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 55.4% · NO 44.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 12:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 12:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000468.v4

BTTS · YES · 53.1% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTCcfb7d…a5e8

cfb7d6ad3a20600de159f052c4a187620e835475d7226f4a803c1f59e8c3a5e8

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqmlls0078r6dstakosljh",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.531119,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC4627f…a6ae

4627fb7a63d13346e4dc210a0ace4d807b7fd7ea9a4ff63c0fea88d8042ea6ae

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqmlls0078r6dstakosljh",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.531119,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 53.1% · NO 46.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000468.v5

BTTS · YES · 55.1% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.81
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 12:08 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 12:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 12:08 UTC9323e…3ef8

9323e8ae09d1017eb57a56dc6e25a47295717d1305c7aa7deac093c0317b3ef8

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwwzlkp004qr661dgvgjeer",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T12:08:49.652Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.551324,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T12:08:49.652Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTCd5947…01c1

d59470163985f361ca02ab8a061da3cb40565fe16346dafa7abd2c04fd4c01c1

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwwzlkp004qr661dgvgjeer",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T12:08:49.652Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.551324,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 55.1% · NO 44.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 12:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 12:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000468.v6

BTTS · YES · 53.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC36682…b5de

3668233391f9bbbe612ea1891add851fb9beb4f623f75885b5e39723d309b5de

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty667zw00air6l8zpm53x8d",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.529915,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC3fc8f…dc69

3fc8fdd1332e4e6601b509aee0847c060536e14576c7d974edf95760e47adc69

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmty667zw00air6l8zpm53x8d",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.529915,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 53.0% · NO 47.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 09:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 09:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000468.v7

BTTS · YES · 54.7% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.83
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC80769…568e

807692910158ed95c1a877b4b69bf65765c38aaddb33a9581b500d339a20568e

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtycg54l0064r6lls1jj5fw8",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.547468,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Lock recordSat 12 Sept · 17:02 UTC66747…898a

6674758d96a318a2fc5442f8febbb98e30e097dc649d67e73d4627058aa2898a

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtycg54l0064r6lls1jj5fw8",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtnufo0c004or6v2rr9k3umj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.547468,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000468.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000468.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T17:02:05.291Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: YES 54.7% · NO 45.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 12:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 12:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.