MQ-000475
RB Leipzig v Hamburg · Bundesliga · Sun 13 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.49
- Market price
- 1.39
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTCcf4e8…ea9d
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyekj00b4r6cbj3qsgdly",
"edge": -0.013482,
"fairOdds": 1.49,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.39,
"modelProbability": 0.669812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000475",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC8cebb…3515
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyekj00b4r6cbj3qsgdly",
"edge": -0.013482,
"fairOdds": 1.49,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.39,
"modelProbability": 0.669812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000475",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T11:32:01.264Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 67.0% · DRAW 20.9% · AWAY 12.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.39
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000475
- Fair price
- 1.43
- Market price
- 1.39
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTCe0c98…019d
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkx3u00a2r6mveagm3bpl",
"edge": 0.016156,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.39,
"modelProbability": 0.698182,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000475.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000475",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC986d7…3fcc
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkx3u00a2r6mveagm3bpl",
"edge": 0.016156,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.39,
"modelProbability": 0.698182,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000475.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000475",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T11:32:01.264Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 69.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 9.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 09:19Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 09:19Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.39
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000475.v2
- Fair price
- 1.43
- Market price
- 1.35
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC53460…7b98
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty66lr300ckr6l8s83amx9e",
"edge": -0.004125,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.35,
"modelProbability": 0.697699,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000475.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000475.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC95916…d5de
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty66lr300ckr6l8s83amx9e",
"edge": -0.004125,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.35,
"modelProbability": 0.697699,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000475.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000475.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T11:32:01.264Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 69.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 9.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.35
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.