MQ-000476
RB Leipzig v Hamburg · Bundesliga · Sun 13 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.53
- Market price
- 1.42
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTCbebfb…3df7
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyekj00b4r6cbj3qsgdly",
"edge": -0.012675,
"fairOdds": 1.53,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.42,
"modelProbability": 0.651628,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000476",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC41516…881f
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyekj00b4r6cbj3qsgdly",
"edge": -0.012675,
"fairOdds": 1.53,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.42,
"modelProbability": 0.651628,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000476",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T11:32:01.264Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 65.2% · UNDER 34.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.42
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000476
- Fair price
- 1.50
- Market price
- 1.42
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC897b5…5a89
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkx3u00a2r6mveagm3bpl",
"edge": 0.000848,
"fairOdds": 1.5,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.42,
"modelProbability": 0.665151,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000476.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000476",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTCf6c33…886b
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbkx3u00a2r6mveagm3bpl",
"edge": 0.000848,
"fairOdds": 1.5,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.42,
"modelProbability": 0.665151,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000476.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000476",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T11:32:01.264Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 66.5% · UNDER 33.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 09:19Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 09:19Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.42
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000476.v2
- Fair price
- 1.50
- Market price
- 1.29
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTCe928c…1f95
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzllgdp001cr68pnd9xpatj",
"edge": -0.065133,
"fairOdds": 1.5,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.667232,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000476.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000476.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 11:32 UTC66ec5…4d70
{
"confidenceScore": 86,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzllgdp001cr68pnd9xpatj",
"edge": -0.065133,
"fairOdds": 1.5,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x5h5005ur65v7em6myr1",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.667232,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000476.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000476.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T11:32:01.264Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 66.7% · UNDER 33.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 09:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 09:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.29
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.