MQ-000481
Le Mans v Lens · Ligue 1 · Sun 13 Sept · 15:15 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.88
- Market price
- 1.66
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 13:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC7c569…d4a9
{
"confidenceScore": 68,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyqev00eyr6cbmwrjstja",
"edge": -0.039435,
"fairOdds": 1.88,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8xh3y0077r65vw5218bsm",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.66,
"modelProbability": 0.533018,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000481",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 13:02 UTC7e024…7f9d
{
"confidenceScore": 68,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyqev00eyr6cbmwrjstja",
"edge": -0.039435,
"fairOdds": 1.88,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8xh3y0077r65vw5218bsm",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.66,
"modelProbability": 0.533018,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000481",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T13:02:05.187Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 21.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 53.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.66
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000481
- Fair price
- 2.06
- Market price
- 1.64
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 13:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC0ce77…7979
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufck7007er6ga2blj5ul0",
"edge": -0.091468,
"fairOdds": 2.06,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8xh3y0077r65vw5218bsm",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.485099,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000481.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000481",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 13:02 UTCfde0a…7327
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufck7007er6ga2blj5ul0",
"edge": -0.091468,
"fairOdds": 2.06,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8xh3y0077r65vw5218bsm",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.485099,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000481.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000481",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T13:02:05.187Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.64
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000481.v2
- Fair price
- 2.61
- Market price
- 1.65
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 19.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 13:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC2d9b3…aab4
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzlgaz008ar6l47xkj24yt",
"edge": -0.191123,
"fairOdds": 2.61,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8xh3y0077r65vw5218bsm",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.65,
"modelProbability": 0.382624,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000481.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000481.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 13:02 UTC0220c…9559
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzlgaz008ar6l47xkj24yt",
"edge": -0.191123,
"fairOdds": 2.61,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8xh3y0077r65vw5218bsm",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.65,
"modelProbability": 0.382624,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000481.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000481.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T13:02:05.187Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 35.0% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 38.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.65
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.