MQ-000485
SV 07 Elversberg v Bayern Munich · Bundesliga · Sun 13 Sept · 15:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.75
- Market price
- 1.18
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 23.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC4ac42…04d0
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyz7c00har6cbn0fxvv95",
"edge": -0.234454,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x64u0060r65vp1xuh90y",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.18,
"modelProbability": 0.571918,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000485",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 13:32 UTCd47f0…ac3c
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtueyz7c00har6cbn0fxvv95",
"edge": -0.234454,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x64u0060r65vp1xuh90y",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.18,
"modelProbability": 0.571918,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000485",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T13:32:01.353Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.9% · DRAW 21.9% · AWAY 57.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 18:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.18
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000485
- Fair price
- 1.70
- Market price
- 1.16
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 22.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC04c73…701f
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzlmeq009qr6l4bkym6ylj",
"edge": -0.229352,
"fairOdds": 1.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x64u0060r65vp1xuh90y",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.16,
"modelProbability": 0.589464,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000485.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000485",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 13:32 UTC8c483…f03a
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzlmeq009qr6l4bkym6ylj",
"edge": -0.229352,
"fairOdds": 1.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8x64u0060r65vp1xuh90y",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.16,
"modelProbability": 0.589464,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000485.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000485",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T13:32:01.353Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 18.8% · DRAW 22.3% · AWAY 58.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.16
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.