PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000486

MQ-000486

Napoli v Bologna · Serie A · Sun 13 Sept · 16:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 1.74
Probability gap: 9.4 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC22055…58cc

22055ddd912ed19772962d133f2af8373f95233c48a9132b7aefcff127d258cc

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtuez2c100hyr6cb7lw5eibz",
 "edge": -0.09354,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC4e458…02e1

4e458a15acaa0d6702d112ea6a201f843c1cdc23df21c6a9c7e88414fcb402e1

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtuez2c100hyr6cb7lw5eibz",
 "edge": -0.09354,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 18:07Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 18:07Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.74
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000486

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.75
Probability gap: 11.9 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC5495d…16d3

5495d19bba826d61fd10bba34a1cf2581418a2213cb9593fe16419c9bdcb16d3

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4pia500eir63kpkn3fi4j",
 "edge": -0.118623,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC15827…3abe

15827783023a73e0fe7d1f706e7bf044dfcf7e42ec13f7ee07c6f0de3eb63abe

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4pia500eir63kpkn3fi4j",
 "edge": -0.118623,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.75
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000486.v2

1X2 · HOME · 40.7% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.46
Market price: 1.78
Probability gap: 12.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC9ad03…0303

9ad0318092da0e0e9b93ecd1bf67005e7f17b39c6ac6b39e88da1a82e0910303

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufjox008er6galofl7kdr",
 "edge": -0.126224,
 "fairOdds": 2.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.78,
 "modelProbability": 0.406734,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC31703…0385

3170377c90cd92bf3559b15d0ac32758ba7801e9438c925ee35418e5f6af0385

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufjox008er6galofl7kdr",
 "edge": -0.126224,
 "fairOdds": 2.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.78,
 "modelProbability": 0.406734,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 40.7% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 32.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 18:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 18:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.78
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000486.v3

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.77
Probability gap: 11.2 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTCbfb15…239d

bfb15754f75b5061bdf76de6b8b9b7312c9640daac4de215975b5daf67ef239d

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqnb1900a4r6ds6ppob80a",
 "edge": -0.112427,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC0bbf6…d80f

0bbf639572dc5d7e2ab1677914123d91b771750c1af13682258b567ffca6d80f

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqnb1900a4r6ds6ppob80a",
 "edge": -0.112427,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.77
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000486.v4

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 13.2 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTCa9db0…2bb2

a9db0aee5eb08f0eacebab79c4c147a3e7d002ed5f17e3ebe473bf6728272bb2

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rgah007kr6sbsgwqq27w",
 "edge": -0.132069,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTCc45fa…a382

c45fa03844bb993fc6f914febc8ed35930161b2078864ba765fdde43eff6a382

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rgah007kr6sbsgwqq27w",
 "edge": -0.132069,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 15:17Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 15:17Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000486.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 4.66
Probability gap: 17.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC1776e…f859

1776e5c9bef10568a8bc2df21e6739310dfc0808d4312a1194926997e5a5f859

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9w4ck006er6xnz3v8s2uj",
 "edge": 0.172854,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.66,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC9aacf…f90a

9aacf14680d8d5ffb21709c01e127c69a01966360f3a4d6fbf402e321daff90a

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9w4ck006er6xnz3v8s2uj",
 "edge": 0.172854,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.66,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.66
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000486.v6

1X2 · HOME · 36.6% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.73
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 16.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 00:08 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 00:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 00:08 UTC3e1d5…005c

3e1d53076fe71b2d321e7d8a21dfaf66fe2d18cc781c314eebe660092041005c

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxmpzb0005qr6h93zbeb3cj",
 "edge": -0.16388,
 "fairOdds": 2.73,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T00:08:49.958Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.366313,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T00:08:49.958Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC3b2a0…7e47

3b2a05319537a0dcff6e2e171dcdaaf7fb51373ce90c2bede3f0a5eca90e7e47

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxmpzb0005qr6h93zbeb3cj",
 "edge": -0.16388,
 "fairOdds": 2.73,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T00:08:49.958Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.366313,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 36.6% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 36.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 00:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 00:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000486.v7

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 74 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.88
Probability gap: 10.3 percentage points
Generated: Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
Published: Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC60ff5…49a2

60ff585d5267cd9d174e3c94213ca23ed9d945bda3e59f440211138d648a49a2

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlm1dp003er68p6b9gh9nz",
 "edge": -0.102626,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.88,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTCd30c3…540e

d30c3f55cd3c8b8f3c3cb60b08b0eeaa7e832bac6bbe63df079d349a1869540e

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlm1dp003er68p6b9gh9nz",
 "edge": -0.102626,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.88,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-13 09:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-13 09:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.88
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000486.v8

1X2 · HOME · 36.6% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.73
Market price: 1.88
Probability gap: 13.5 percentage points
Generated: Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Published: Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTCea916…4100

ea916b35769f15cd4b1556f949b77f6217e177c8ce60acc4857513c2aa8d4100

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrvb7o001er64keugricya",
 "edge": -0.135067,
 "fairOdds": 2.73,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.88,
 "modelProbability": 0.366313,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC32625…d41c

326259e7e31522c5e914ceff4b9efd671c966fbf7e07dac8f8816cced5e4d41c

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrvb7o001er64keugricya",
 "edge": -0.135067,
 "fairOdds": 2.73,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.88,
 "modelProbability": 0.366313,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 36.6% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 36.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-13 12:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-13 12:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.88
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000486.v9

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 78 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 4.26
Probability gap: 15.3 percentage points
Generated: Sun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC
Published: Sun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC3af2d…9043

3af2d106515e469860d6bf0ff36bb5cee9cfe52024756d589e4a24026a7c9043

{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzyd0b9000kr6li0azokg0x",
 "edge": 0.152929,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.26,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 15:32 UTCfb971…f375

fb971b9b3a9d946131d8b7f256dd294ed300aa8a01c29c5363c9cb13464ef375

{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzyd0b9000kr6li0azokg0x",
 "edge": 0.152929,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.26,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000486.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000486.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T15:32:01.164Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-13 15:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-13 15:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H0_1
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.26
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.