PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000487

MQ-000487

Napoli v Bologna · Serie A · Sun 13 Sept · 16:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · UNDER · 52.3% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 1.91
Market price: 1.74
Probability gap: 2.2 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 18:07 UTCe8d8c…8b11

e8d8cb8dcdf7890f711e8d3d24a7408ad4cecf1bfa678425e36cacaf93938b11

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtuez2c100hyr6cb7lw5eibz",
 "edge": -0.021661,
 "fairOdds": 1.91,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.522842,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC0222e…b554

0222ef678527efa72a13810e9a23168d4bd3934e8280c5fbdb4bf3f743cdb554

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtuez2c100hyr6cb7lw5eibz",
 "edge": -0.021661,
 "fairOdds": 1.91,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T18:07:42.290Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.522842,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 47.7% · UNDER 52.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 18:07Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 18:07Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.74
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000487

OU25 · UNDER · 53.8% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.86
Market price: 1.74
Probability gap: 0.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTCbb47d…1ff0

bb47d1166955b85db1000eb4fee270808a0fc0d74df164d00146866536ef1ff0

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4pia500eir63kpkn3fi4j",
 "edge": -0.006409,
 "fairOdds": 1.86,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.538094,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC965f3…d5f0

965f3261870e41a9568ba108649ba97199850080ce37c8b93aa9a73613d2d5f0

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4pia500eir63kpkn3fi4j",
 "edge": -0.006409,
 "fairOdds": 1.86,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.74,
 "modelProbability": 0.538094,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 46.2% · UNDER 53.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.74
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000487.v2

OU25 · UNDER · 52.6% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.90
Market price: 1.73
Probability gap: 2 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC2dc38…0a50

2dc3843d0dea6423ff73f17b9f459d64dd4e855137e2be7a8bfd9e9a192e0a50

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufjox008er6galofl7kdr",
 "edge": -0.020085,
 "fairOdds": 1.9,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.525847,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC0de58…a575

0de586852d7d7396ec7f7a50ad4759043b6b33f957c62b061a75bf680e18a575

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufjox008er6galofl7kdr",
 "edge": -0.020085,
 "fairOdds": 1.9,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.525847,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 47.4% · UNDER 52.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 18:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 18:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.73
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000487.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 54.3% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.84
Market price: 1.73
Probability gap: 0.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC59fe9…8541

59fe9d43184f5d95d324b8e47e1695047f039f474a4bfc9f14b01363268a8541

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqnb1900a4r6ds6ppob80a",
 "edge": -0.002519,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.543413,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC23f71…9aa9

23f71218bd9afaf5e3200f08bff6582ba5ef7706e2829f523e90ae9b0dc99aa9

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqnb1900a4r6ds6ppob80a",
 "edge": -0.002519,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.543413,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 45.7% · UNDER 54.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.73
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000487.v4

OU25 · UNDER · 53.0% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 1.73
Probability gap: 1.6 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC8eafb…cf37

8eafb2339e5c02c386149d584c467dc11ba71327ce72d7650029f00d3fa7cf37

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rgah007kr6sbsgwqq27w",
 "edge": -0.01576,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.530172,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC78e48…9555

78e489bda26b0c0d71cb65f8fd4d5b43095694a912a5556a123b70df814f9555

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rgah007kr6sbsgwqq27w",
 "edge": -0.01576,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.530172,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 47.0% · UNDER 53.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 15:17Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 15:17Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.73
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000487.v5

OU25 · UNDER · 53.2% · confidence 74 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 1.87
Probability gap: 2.4 percentage points
Generated: Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
Published: Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC95b20…ef68

95b20a7b1b13319147ce9c032df2cc21c5031ca6421f930a333bc2c1e293ef68

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlm1dp003er68p6b9gh9nz",
 "edge": 0.023777,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.531672,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 14:02 UTC33c04…28c0

33c04852348756a07aab560ef6a03b5165b4c10c7a0781f4a37aa5a5058828c0

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlm1dp003er68p6b9gh9nz",
 "edge": 0.023777,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wtzr004mr65vi7585a3u",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.531672,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000487.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000487.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T14:02:01.289Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 46.8% · UNDER 53.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-13 09:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-13 09:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.87
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.