PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000490

MQ-000490

Sassuolo v Juventus · Serie A · Sun 13 Sept · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 52.9% · confidence 86

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 1.63
Probability gap: 5.3 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTCb14cc…ee12

b14cc2fa0c94066967ebd3e01a3f8ab1cd03fd221b64a0fb58d1abbcd731ee12

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulgyfg008cr632xw86yh42",
 "edge": -0.052609,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC70840…85e1

708407d2ee4781435482b193af09789c0d8ad903b02dcb740366a5e3e41085e1

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulgyfg008cr632xw86yh42",
 "edge": -0.052609,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 21:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 21:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.63
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000490

1X2 · AWAY · 50.5% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.98
Market price: 1.63
Probability gap: 7.6 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 06:08 UTC8bb6b…bf44

8bb6b6adb6e9b0442d8271c9f109bb42873cbf46218cc49c0fa5a3e21dfdbf44

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwk55kw006qr6bi1jlnvhay",
 "edge": -0.075785,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T06:08:39.150Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.505302,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T06:08:39.150Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC2cf4a…deab

2cf4a4b85408dd99f312cc6d7d29ca611fb42cd7048da5237c93ab8d02c1deab

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwk55kw006qr6bi1jlnvhay",
 "edge": -0.075785,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T06:08:39.150Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.505302,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.5% · DRAW 28.0% · AWAY 50.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 06:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 06:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.63
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000490.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 52.9% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 1.63
Probability gap: 5.4 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 09:10 UTC67fe6…db26

67fe6dbaf6422c295a5ed90f85f5db3b9b292d91f6a3172a9974170ebbaadb26

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqngvc00bgr6dsgiawogu1",
 "edge": -0.053511,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC0e0d6…d401

0e0d68eac51db5099a44698e62727278302e57776d14290c88bf31c931bcd401

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtwqngvc00bgr6dsgiawogu1",
 "edge": -0.053511,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T09:10:30.776Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.63
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000490.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 50.5% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.98
Market price: 1.65
Probability gap: 6.9 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC2fdac…0ca2

2fdac3e18264aa69d6a16bd1fa56ab135867cf4f1566dd6d64c172a6c4cd0ca2

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rlwd008wr6sbww0inwdi",
 "edge": -0.069236,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.505302,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC8dc4f…b927

8dc4f416d1e11d95ef6b0209c99feee9a7a1c44183536de60cebc1f4709bb927

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rlwd008wr6sbww0inwdi",
 "edge": -0.069236,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.505302,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.5% · DRAW 28.0% · AWAY 50.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 15:17Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 15:17Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.65
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000490.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 52.3% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 1.91
Market price: 1.65
Probability gap: 5.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC458b9…2a37

458b9280a8870f8cd7ddf157668802db8b783a18d7ace36d26ac9bbb68ae2a37

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzlx9s00byr6l4y78qdpc2",
 "edge": -0.052743,
 "fairOdds": 1.91,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.523005,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC89bba…9cb0

89bbad6b9ea1f46a75162f4c38f0efd595c14463452b3f453e870ca095829cb0

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzlx9s00byr6l4y78qdpc2",
 "edge": -0.052743,
 "fairOdds": 1.91,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wuli004sr65v060r54m5",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.523005,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000490.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000490.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.7% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 52.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 06:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 06:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.65
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.