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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000494

MQ-000494

Brest v Paris SG · Ligue 1 · Sun 13 Sept · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 58.1% · confidence 88
בוטל
Fair price
1.72
Market price
1.45
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.9 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Locked
Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTCc466f…f4f3
c466f8f9f085c145de70e20fc8a714e3ac1f6bc8ab420995a66399477c10f4f3
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulh4an00a6r63235atd92q",
 "edge": -0.068734,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.45,
 "modelProbability": 0.581024,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC2ebaa…94ba
2ebaaa83fc74bdd21a95c0e940fadeedcd8793b50354a8f9fd202afaf03d94ba
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulh4an00a6r63235atd92q",
 "edge": -0.068734,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.45,
 "modelProbability": 0.581024,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 58.1% · UNDER 41.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 21:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 21:10Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.45
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000494

OU25 · OVER · 60.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.67
Market price
1.44
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.4 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked
Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC822ce…3b3a
822cef467982f3f42c703382c1b15f10f7812d6da56da76b8e15de91e8993b3a
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4pqcx00fwr63kox4xe0ty",
 "edge": -0.053584,
 "fairOdds": 1.67,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.600262,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000494",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC23314…d443
23314d238a31782ef041a6f8080becb4ebac3d206b39e8b97ac46cf4926ad443
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4pqcx00fwr63kox4xe0ty",
 "edge": -0.053584,
 "fairOdds": 1.67,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.600262,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000494",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 60.0% · UNDER 40.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.44
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000494.v2

OU25 · OVER · 60.1% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.66
Market price
1.39
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.5 percentage points
Generated
Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Published
Fri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTC
Locked
Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 15:17 UTCfd109…4af4
fd109571a9a7155ac0e1e18d43e078994aac9da3c81b4a25d6f15d9622604af4
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rp8c009mr6sbx89ik31f",
 "edge": -0.074959,
 "fairOdds": 1.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.39,
 "modelProbability": 0.601032,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000494.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC6fafb…0576
6fafb212a6de9cc1c9178525f6dae9913ccc217d900a45a3d48f0375e8cc0576
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx3rp8c009mr6sbx89ik31f",
 "edge": -0.074959,
 "fairOdds": 1.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:17:57.961Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.39,
 "modelProbability": 0.601032,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000494.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 60.1% · UNDER 39.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-11 15:17Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-11 15:17Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.39
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000494.v3

OU25 · OVER · 60.3% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
החטאה
Fair price
1.66
Market price
1.35
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
9.5 percentage points
Generated
Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Published
Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Locked
Sun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC0596f…67a4
0596fc6ae30bc5d04b762497285fa0be540ef04f2b64587ec0f725edfde267a4
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrvn7n0036r64kfbz6r3ne",
 "edge": -0.095465,
 "fairOdds": 1.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.603196,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000494.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 16:41 UTC9fcc7…c59b
9fcc78e4cffb41a20dd00f9cce80db23a86fe33d72547a49d0e13b94b276c59b
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrvn7n0036r64kfbz6r3ne",
 "edge": -0.095465,
 "fairOdds": 1.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8xhrk007dr65vfyxvyl1m",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.603196,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000494.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000494.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T16:41:14.231Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 60.3% · UNDER 39.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-13 12:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-13 12:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.35
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.