PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000496

MQ-000496

Sociedad v Ath Madrid · La Liga · Sun 13 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 94

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 2.87
Probability gap: 6.5 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTCcc2d9…e321

cc2d97cb65ee37df2b06a58d0547bc403092ef34ecf93e38029aa40cf502e321

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulh9ug00c0r632cpxrwge1",
 "edge": 0.065288,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC4254c…91d7

4254cb8732f36975d5db24ed698f6077a5774f46f6c1570e52e26e5e47ec91d7

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtulh9ug00c0r632cpxrwge1",
 "edge": 0.065288,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 21:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 21:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.87
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000496

1X2 · HOME · 41.9% · confidence 94 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.39
Market price: 2.87
Probability gap: 8.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC9cfab…b4cf

9cfab073ef870e98e4bd50a3b7ece947153083a77d53d1d6b67820ad37f4b4cf

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4ptgi00gor63k4kdn117v",
 "edge": 0.086377,
 "fairOdds": 2.39,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.418728,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000496",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC371d7…6c2b

371d7566465a71be78625c39981a81eedda2b1a7f480360ec31c9fd5a9b46c2b

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4ptgi00gor63k4kdn117v",
 "edge": 0.086377,
 "fairOdds": 2.39,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.418728,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000496",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 41.9% · DRAW 27.7% · AWAY 30.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.87
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000496.v2

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 2.93
Probability gap: 7.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC1197b…9072

1197bde9b3907c737f0243ef5993dd0f35e8d96658f2fb741f23be7411849072

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9wfcw0086r6xnm3ohjrm9",
 "edge": 0.073133,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.93,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000496.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTCe6f16…f199

e6f1687eed24ee88bc4095106e58ef9543da7140a84844e045f58ee49348f199

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9wfcw0086r6xnm3ohjrm9",
 "edge": 0.073133,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.93,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000496.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.93
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000496.v3

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 3.24
Probability gap: 10.3 percentage points
Generated: Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
Published: Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC99bfc…fc68

99bfcabe8038efe6a1f15b1988c646bf53e4a7647e543e604667d7e7892dfc68

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlmln80058r68p98vaq1rb",
 "edge": 0.103345,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.24,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000496.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTCfcdb5…e0cb

fcdb551e4440a6dd9c8fa9f0c841ed3cdbb7c574d38dc0d1021243cee092e0cb

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlmln80058r68p98vaq1rb",
 "edge": 0.103345,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.24,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000496.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000496.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-13 09:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-13 09:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.24
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.