MQ-000497
Sociedad v Ath Madrid · La Liga · Sun 13 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.72
- Market price
- 1.66
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 21:10 UTC3946f…de6a
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtulh9ug00c0r632cpxrwge1",
"edge": 0.016247,
"fairOdds": 1.72,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.66,
"modelProbability": 0.580551,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000497",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC7e83b…a29f
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtulh9ug00c0r632cpxrwge1",
"edge": 0.016247,
"fairOdds": 1.72,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T21:10:09.071Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.66,
"modelProbability": 0.580551,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000497",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 58.1% · UNDER 41.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 21:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 21:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.66
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000497
- Fair price
- 1.76
- Market price
- 1.66
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC2067c…e670
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4ptgi00gor63k4kdn117v",
"edge": 0.005248,
"fairOdds": 1.76,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.66,
"modelProbability": 0.569552,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000497.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000497",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC352fb…22d1
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4ptgi00gor63k4kdn117v",
"edge": 0.005248,
"fairOdds": 1.76,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.66,
"modelProbability": 0.569552,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000497.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000497",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 57.0% · UNDER 43.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.66
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000497.v2
- Fair price
- 1.78
- Market price
- 1.61
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 21:14 UTC5ae63…53b0
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyvvyh3002er62zzzab8ge5",
"edge": -0.019602,
"fairOdds": 1.78,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T21:14:03.815Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.61,
"modelProbability": 0.562216,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000497.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000497.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T21:14:03.815Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 13 Sept · 17:02 UTCea1ab…6985
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyvvyh3002er62zzzab8ge5",
"edge": -0.019602,
"fairOdds": 1.78,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtp8wjvy003ir65v2zgjq4ud",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T21:14:03.815Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.61,
"modelProbability": 0.562216,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000497.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000497.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T17:02:06.145Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 56.2% · UNDER 43.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.61
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.