MQ-000500
Como v Parma · Serie A · Mon 14 Sept · 16:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.75
- Market price
- 2.14
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTCc00d1…02c2
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufw2y00a8r6gau391cdcr",
"edge": 0.131883,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoctif005dr6d8estu85zo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.14,
"modelProbability": 0.571674,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000500",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC7c413…60d5
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvufw2y00a8r6gau391cdcr",
"edge": 0.131883,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoctif005dr6d8estu85zo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.14,
"modelProbability": 0.571674,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000500",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T14:32:05.534Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 42.8% · UNDER 57.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.14
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000500
- Fair price
- 1.74
- Market price
- 2.24
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 15.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 21:14 UTCdc85d…22d1
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyvw3ix003ar62zmmepcg9a",
"edge": 0.15428,
"fairOdds": 1.74,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoctif005dr6d8estu85zo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T21:14:03.815Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.24,
"modelProbability": 0.573969,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000500.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000500",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T21:14:03.815Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC3806b…417c
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyvw3ix003ar62zmmepcg9a",
"edge": 0.15428,
"fairOdds": 1.74,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoctif005dr6d8estu85zo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T21:14:03.815Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.24,
"modelProbability": 0.573969,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000500.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000500",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T14:32:05.534Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 42.6% · UNDER 57.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.24
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000500.v2
- Fair price
- 1.74
- Market price
- 2.40
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 18.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 15:14 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 15:14 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 15:14 UTC53099…f12a
{
"confidenceScore": 97,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1dw7br0008r63yyp1jl59c",
"edge": 0.184774,
"fairOdds": 1.74,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoctif005dr6d8estu85zo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:14:32.680Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.4,
"modelProbability": 0.575637,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000500.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000500.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:14:32.680Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC51c13…1257
{
"confidenceScore": 97,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1dw7br0008r63yyp1jl59c",
"edge": 0.184774,
"fairOdds": 1.74,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoctif005dr6d8estu85zo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:14:32.680Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.4,
"modelProbability": 0.575637,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000500.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000500.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 42.4% · UNDER 57.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 15:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 15:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.40
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.