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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000503

MQ-000503

Torino v Roma · Serie A · Mon 14 Sept · 16:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 56.7% · confidence 90
בוטל
Fair price
1.76
Market price
1.83
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC4949c…df83
4949ca5675c0f73b0767e69c8d9876e0a6cb929811c5ba85e1c75d9f1e39df83
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvug22z00c8r6gaw48xgkil",
 "edge": 0.04954,
 "fairOdds": 1.76,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.83,
 "modelProbability": 0.56669,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC43c87…9d06
43c87c598e9d4c63604ac47310a18c362875ad7642f5e732951d770cfc3d9d06
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvug22z00c8r6gaw48xgkil",
 "edge": 0.04954,
 "fairOdds": 1.76,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.83,
 "modelProbability": 0.56669,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T14:32:05.534Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 56.7% · UNDER 43.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 18:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 18:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.83
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000503

OU25 · OVER · 54.6% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.83
Market price
1.79
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2 percentage points
Generated
Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Published
Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC43446…de28
43446f1cde9d77615e2f87a95500a009b2b62e691970612140390a13ebc2de28
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzma8g00ekr6l4ywkcw5pj",
 "edge": 0.020003,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.546458,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000503",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTCf9a6b…caf2
f9a6b4e817052ba6c5590f74aac1758a7ce58737da5f99c72b8d2cce7325caf2
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzma8g00ekr6l4ywkcw5pj",
 "edge": 0.020003,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.546458,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000503",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T14:32:05.534Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.6% · UNDER 45.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-12 06:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-12 06:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.79
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000503.v2

OU25 · OVER · 57.5% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.74
Market price
1.75
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
3.4 percentage points
Generated
Sun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC
Published
Sun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTCa0613…c35e
a06132204b3537ee7d06f5587c4ba94c99084a044d8dbb20e64572b6e3bdc35e
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzydmf0002er6lic7t0fhnu",
 "edge": 0.034047,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.574729,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000503.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTCd3d1a…a5b7
d3d1ae895dd053f052c483dd192a7a597ad74c81bc054f3163ff14441540a5b7
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzydmf0002er6lic7t0fhnu",
 "edge": 0.034047,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.574729,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000503.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T14:32:05.534Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 57.5% · UNDER 42.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-13 15:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-13 15:11Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.75
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000503.v3

OU25 · OVER · 54.3% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh
החטאה
Fair price
1.84
Market price
1.75
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.1 percentage points
Generated
Mon 14 Sept · 09:12 UTC
Published
Mon 14 Sept · 09:12 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 09:12 UTC8f506…2e65
8f506b8a5724417ad3d07dc515978d3a8638b92eaee2843ad029e1320d222e65
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu10z1qu000er6gk1lle8h68",
 "edge": 0.001104,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T09:12:43.806Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.542989,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000503.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T09:12:43.806Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 14:32 UTC6aa2e…9c14
6aa2e2023c62d5c2022e916be9b609d451bb80e9a82988a52443581a730a9c14
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu10z1qu000er6gk1lle8h68",
 "edge": 0.001104,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqocu86005kr6d8bo452flr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T09:12:43.806Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.542989,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000503.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000503.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T14:32:05.534Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.3% · UNDER 45.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-14 09:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-14 09:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.75
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.