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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000506

MQ-000506

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv · Israeli Premier League · Mon 14 Sept · 17:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 53.9% · confidence 80
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC98af8…dbe7
98af875090ce33d01905ca8bd4030916c4fcbe4043a00f5724d248061ffedbe7
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 45,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvug75m00e2r6gacls6dnl9",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.539263,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTCa0265…e816
a026543bd34a5aef4bc1f9ee9a3619b554143a8fa0db73f8a896bd4f9f16e816
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 45,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvug75m00e2r6gacls6dnl9",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.539263,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 53.9% · UNDER 46.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 18:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 18:08Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000506

OU25 · OVER · 54.0% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.70
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.3 percentage points
Generated
Sun 13 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published
Sun 13 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 06:08 UTC23e2e…dfaf
23e2e39d2e9f3e46ce5448d78a14c66a3545056905d25894556e42771b00dfaf
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzezdo4005ir6azld8wg860",
 "edge": -0.013057,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T06:08:18.832Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.539575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T06:08:18.832Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTCc8562…9b3e
c85627a48cba8751aab81691aac9b92fa864110aaccaafd068bd754718269b3e
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtzezdo4005ir6azld8wg860",
 "edge": -0.013057,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T06:08:18.832Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.539575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.0% · UNDER 46.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-13 06:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-13 06:08Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.70
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000506.v2

OU25 · OVER · 54.0% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.62
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
4.2 percentage points
Generated
Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTCdc75c…22d3
dc75c20a80007a89c5a86dc30fc2c32b63742890a503f8e919ade34e981422d3
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0b9jgn0018r6wnvrmr39xu",
 "edge": -0.041741,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.539654,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC5392d…7ef9
5392df9d6a56734aecf0f6fecbd0ce2793eca59481f702047c9adc9880e07ef9
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0b9jgn0018r6wnvrmr39xu",
 "edge": -0.041741,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.539654,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.0% · UNDER 46.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-13 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-13 21:12Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.62
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000506.v3

OU25 · OVER · 54.0% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.40
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
13.3 percentage points
Generated
Mon 14 Sept · 03:12 UTC
Published
Mon 14 Sept · 03:12 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 03:12 UTCc491b…1e2d
c491b6c4fda99ca1be1d4242f675009d4781435f03315b89210c60e887821e2d
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0o4bk40018r6w1iryerdh0",
 "edge": -0.133212,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T03:12:44.602Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.4,
 "modelProbability": 0.539685,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T03:12:44.602Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTCf6a22…da89
f6a22682789150e76b4c2390a2bbb99859f09996f06783b769c86c6bb8d5da89
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0o4bk40018r6w1iryerdh0",
 "edge": -0.133212,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T03:12:44.602Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.4,
 "modelProbability": 0.539685,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.0% · UNDER 46.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-14 03:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-14 03:12Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.40
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000506.v4

OU25 · OVER · 54.1% · confidence 84 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.48
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
9.6 percentage points
Generated
Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
Published
Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTCa17e8…c276
a17e867a3d089887036c420c442ac3abf8702dcdde9273c3c47146b5af02c276
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uifs70020r6sdu5amclv9",
 "edge": -0.096023,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.541232,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC5b042…851c
5b042f44c9bcd5cebade0324782553b581bc41accde594f68c41ba51942c851c
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uifs70020r6sdu5amclv9",
 "edge": -0.096023,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.541232,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.1% · UNDER 45.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-14 06:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-14 06:11Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.48
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000506.v5

OU25 · OVER · 54.1% · confidence 84 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.57
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.8 percentage points
Generated
Mon 14 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Published
Mon 14 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Locked
Mon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 12:09 UTCdaa2c…aaee
daa2c118289e979107b953dc267af4e8dbea6a23b7fc24e2fc7239b28e7caaee
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu17b8u2000wr6t04avyc3to",
 "edge": -0.058229,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T12:09:45.121Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.57,
 "modelProbability": 0.541261,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T12:09:45.121Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 15:32 UTC254f9…bcf9
254f99fcf77fac0388e46463acb9cd584b9281497a86b9b59de292cb5f6ebcf9
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 62,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu17b8u2000wr6t04avyc3to",
 "edge": -0.058229,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtqoa56l000lr6d8bjblayfv",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T12:09:45.121Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.57,
 "modelProbability": 0.541261,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000506.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000506.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:32:05.589Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.1% · UNDER 45.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-14 12:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-14 12:09Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.57
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.