MQ-000519
Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Katamon · Israeli Premier League · Tue 15 Sept · 16:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 18:08 UTC8e8fc…042d
{
"confidenceScore": 79,
"dataQualityScore": 41,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvugwr100lqr6gatbezhx6x",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC37bfa…99df
{
"confidenceScore": 79,
"dataQualityScore": 41,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtvugwr100lqr6gatbezhx6x",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T18:08:46.599Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000519
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 2.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 14.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC889da…aebf
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 56,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uiw0w003mr6sd6csqagbi",
"edge": 0.147503,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000519",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTCe5c32…5e6e
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 56,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uiw0w003mr6sd6csqagbi",
"edge": 0.147503,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000519",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000519.v2
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 2.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 16.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC6f6ab…13f9
{
"confidenceScore": 81,
"dataQualityScore": 56,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu29tntq0002r6qgg8vdfvsc",
"edge": 0.167903,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000519.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC7bd0c…a2b9
{
"confidenceScore": 81,
"dataQualityScore": 56,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu29tntq0002r6qgg8vdfvsc",
"edge": 0.167903,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000519.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000519.v3
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 2.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 14.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC97eb0…f404
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 58,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2v1vet000lr604kgxcg0o8",
"edge": 0.147503,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoa98c001mr6d8rirjlc6c",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:17.192Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000519.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000519.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:17.192Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 16:02Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 16:02Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H0_1
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.