MQ-000525
Leeds v Newcastle · Premier League · Mon 14 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.12
- Market price
- 2.39
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTCd6439…829a
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw137fm00d2r6yttt2ymtvq",
"edge": 0.07478,
"fairOdds": 2.12,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoc5hy0031r6d89dw9xxik",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.39,
"modelProbability": 0.472412,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000525",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC002c7…cb2a
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw137fm00d2r6yttt2ymtvq",
"edge": 0.07478,
"fairOdds": 2.12,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoc5hy0031r6d89dw9xxik",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.39,
"modelProbability": 0.472412,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000525",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T17:02:04.314Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 47.2% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 27.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.39
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000525
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 2.35
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 00:08 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 00:08 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 00:08 UTCc0704…533f
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxmqtae008qr6h9up2dx30s",
"edge": 0.085028,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoc5hy0031r6d89dw9xxik",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T00:08:49.958Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.35,
"modelProbability": 0.489257,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000525.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000525",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T00:08:49.958Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTCa9d15…7ce8
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxmqtae008qr6h9up2dx30s",
"edge": 0.085028,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoc5hy0031r6d89dw9xxik",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T00:08:49.958Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.35,
"modelProbability": 0.489257,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000525.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000525",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T17:02:04.314Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.9% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 25.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 00:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 00:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.35
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000525.v2
- Fair price
- 2.21
- Market price
- 2.33
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC2ba3d…db17
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uiovu002ur6sdrnpd10ky",
"edge": 0.04249,
"fairOdds": 2.21,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoc5hy0031r6d89dw9xxik",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.33,
"modelProbability": 0.45247,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000525.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000525.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC560c4…ec40
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uiovu002ur6sdrnpd10ky",
"edge": 0.04249,
"fairOdds": 2.21,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoc5hy0031r6d89dw9xxik",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.33,
"modelProbability": 0.45247,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000525.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000525.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T17:02:04.314Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.33
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.