MQ-000529
Villarreal v Betis · La Liga · Mon 14 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.64
- Market price
- 1.59
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 21:14 UTCcb3e6…b99b
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw13d3h00ekr6ythlv32pq7",
"edge": 0.021395,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoci4z0049r6d82jj0y9nw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.59,
"modelProbability": 0.611601,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000529",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTCebdca…b23c
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtw13d3h00ekr6ythlv32pq7",
"edge": 0.021395,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoci4z0049r6d82jj0y9nw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T21:14:32.689Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.59,
"modelProbability": 0.611601,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000529",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T17:02:04.314Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 61.2% · UNDER 38.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.59
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000529
- Fair price
- 1.64
- Market price
- 1.51
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 15:14 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 15:14 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 15:14 UTCb71da…1250
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1dwszw0032r63y3p9d0a9n",
"edge": -0.009565,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoci4z0049r6d82jj0y9nw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:14:32.680Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.51,
"modelProbability": 0.610082,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000529.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000529",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T15:14:32.680Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 17:02 UTC436bb…22d9
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1dwszw0032r63y3p9d0a9n",
"edge": -0.009565,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoci4z0049r6d82jj0y9nw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T15:14:32.680Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.51,
"modelProbability": 0.610082,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000529.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000529",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T17:02:04.314Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 61.0% · UNDER 39.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 15:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 15:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.51
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000529.v2
- Fair price
- 1.64
- Market price
- 1.45
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC83028…680f
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k4gpp000er62i9r7t9qig",
"edge": -0.033669,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoci4z0049r6d82jj0y9nw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.610066,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000529.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000529.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordMon 14 Sept · 18:32 UTC16071…6e78
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k4gpp000er62i9r7t9qig",
"edge": -0.033669,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtqoci4z0049r6d82jj0y9nw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.610066,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000529.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000529.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:32:06.597Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 61.0% · UNDER 39.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H0_1
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.45
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.