PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000531

MQ-000531

Vallecano v Espanol · La Liga · Tue 15 Sept · 17:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 91

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 2.00
Probability gap: 4.9 percentage points
Generated: Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Published: Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTCbb2f8…bdee

bb2f84f98a86bd5b7b36de285b6f7bd8deb7ad095196e8e42276a7eab738bdee

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9x4wc00awr6xn5tacjkgd",
 "edge": -0.04909,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC7969b…f0e4

7969b6157300beb051c8bebb202fce31030200a69a782dafd6f94e9adcbaf0e4

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9x4wc00awr6xn5tacjkgd",
 "edge": -0.04909,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-11 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-11 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.00
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000531

1X2 · HOME · 48.2% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.07
Market price: 2.01
Probability gap: 1.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Published: Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
Locked: Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC81324…82ae

81324f3714a656ab61e8302c897b865b94bbaf39c3c834ab95a963b350f182ae

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtychzrb00cgr6llouzeb672",
 "edge": 0.013923,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTCa8fc5…559e

a8fc5a9ae8266702610dcb2145d365d6544a1d6813b35aad9e3518836ac1559e

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtychzrb00cgr6llouzeb672",
 "edge": 0.013923,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-12 12:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-12 12:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.01
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000531.v2

1X2 · HOME · 48.2% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 2.07
Market price: 2.16
Probability gap: 4.3 percentage points
Generated: Mon 14 Sept · 00:07 UTC
Published: Mon 14 Sept · 00:07 UTC
Locked: Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 00:07 UTCf0933…55de

f09339d982d0f1b12790cb0f41c26a42aaadd4613703acc0be0c3cddf6d555de

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0hijp5001wr6zyvknqop8u",
 "edge": 0.042597,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T00:07:38.414Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T00:07:38.414Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC8dd1e…267f

8dd1eda0cb8c2861f7634a12feac48436fe23cc8659753385f0666baa6d6267f

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0hijp5001wr6zyvknqop8u",
 "edge": 0.042597,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T00:07:38.414Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-14 00:07Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-14 00:07Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.16
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000531.v3

1X2 · HOME · 44.0% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.27
Market price: 2.17
Probability gap: 0.3 percentage points
Generated: Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
Published: Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
Locked: Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTCb20ed…ec20

b20ed9d50b6cfda8df534299ed768b497564e01e0d7c7834f3274d41a543ec20

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uj188004sr6sdqwvk0rjy",
 "edge": 0.002577,
 "fairOdds": 2.27,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.17,
 "modelProbability": 0.44001,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC3f05a…2a7c

3f05a476a2c90f3ad1c0c159e8d96c4f29007dcdd2dbba1548c378d746122a7c

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uj188004sr6sdqwvk0rjy",
 "edge": 0.002577,
 "fairOdds": 2.27,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.17,
 "modelProbability": 0.44001,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 44.0% · DRAW 29.1% · AWAY 26.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-14 06:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-14 06:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.17
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000531.v4

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 2.20
Probability gap: 0.8 percentage points
Generated: Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published: Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked: Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC0f79c…cdc1

0f79ca3f293bb4a17eceeb44154e8b010f1e3b3a09c3ff8554e6346204e0cdc1

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k4nuo0018r62iqx5uugyv",
 "edge": -0.007549,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC538f2…bdec

538f2ec73b9f77535ec25cd9625c2cb09bd78886ec3eac422c825a503fb3bdec

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k4nuo0018r62iqx5uugyv",
 "edge": -0.007549,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-14 18:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-14 18:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.20
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000531.v5

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 2.34
Probability gap: 1.7 percentage points
Generated: Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
Published: Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
Locked: Tue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC1e57d…6624

1e57d11b3654d16ce781f1a1305d65eb1e39d99dcaf9502665d91d7d68426624

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2mwth60008r62gv4nlsx1q",
 "edge": 0.016583,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 15:32 UTC4bab1…ce39

4bab1d0e01a5046857382c86340ba17778a1dbce68367160e4cf85c686edce39

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2mwth60008r62gv4nlsx1q",
 "edge": 0.016583,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmts3lttj003ar65jkzp6ac0q",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000531.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000531.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T15:32:06.479Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-15 12:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-15 12:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.34
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.