MQ-000534
Alaves v Valencia · La Liga · Tue 15 Sept · 18:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.85
- Market price
- 2.10
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC40c57…390d
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9xaq400cqr6xnkzfdsjm5",
"edge": 0.090554,
"fairOdds": 1.85,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.1,
"modelProbability": 0.539086,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCfd691…03d0
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9xaq400cqr6xnkzfdsjm5",
"edge": 0.090554,
"fairOdds": 1.85,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.1,
"modelProbability": 0.539086,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 53.9% · DRAW 28.8% · AWAY 17.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.10
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000534
- Fair price
- 1.85
- Market price
- 1.96
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC0f6f7…611d
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxgibzq009ar6jwcbabn6xc",
"edge": 0.058057,
"fairOdds": 1.85,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.539086,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCe41a5…2865
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxgibzq009ar6jwcbabn6xc",
"edge": 0.058057,
"fairOdds": 1.85,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.539086,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 53.9% · DRAW 28.8% · AWAY 17.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.96
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000534.v2
- Fair price
- 1.77
- Market price
- 1.94
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC0f720…3cd1
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzmxz300ior6l4lcs347ji",
"edge": 0.078695,
"fairOdds": 1.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.94,
"modelProbability": 0.563596,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCb05b1…6682
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzmxz300ior6l4lcs347ji",
"edge": 0.078695,
"fairOdds": 1.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.94,
"modelProbability": 0.563596,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 56.4% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 16.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.94
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000534.v3
- Fair price
- 1.68
- Market price
- 1.91
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC0e390…2de7
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrwvhn007ur64kai6e2lno",
"edge": 0.098075,
"fairOdds": 1.68,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.594121,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCe83d9…b5a0
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrwvhn007ur64kai6e2lno",
"edge": 0.098075,
"fairOdds": 1.68,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.594121,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 59.4% · DRAW 28.2% · AWAY 12.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.91
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000534.v4
- Fair price
- 1.65
- Market price
- 1.90
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC8182a…b31e
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uj8zn006qr6sds9were4c",
"edge": 0.10495,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.9,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCb83d3…d2d9
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0uj8zn006qr6sds9were4c",
"edge": 0.10495,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.9,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 60.7% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 12.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.90
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 6 · previous MQ-000534.v5
- Fair price
- 1.65
- Market price
- 1.78
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC8ed30…882e
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu29txmt0012r6qggjo0869q",
"edge": 0.073359,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.78,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v6",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v5",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCa33de…4165
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu29txmt0012r6qggjo0869q",
"edge": 0.073359,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.78,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v6",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v5",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 60.7% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 12.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.78
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 7 · previous MQ-000534.v6
- Fair price
- 1.65
- Market price
- 1.72
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC8a4f1…b7b9
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2mx76v001mr62gao34ds0u",
"edge": 0.053099,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.72,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v7",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v6",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC1efc9…9eea
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2mx76v001mr62gao34ds0u",
"edge": 0.053099,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.72,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v7",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v6",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 60.7% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 12.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.72
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 8 · previous MQ-000534.v7
- Fair price
- 1.65
- Market price
- 1.64
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:05 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:05 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 16:05 UTC9430a…d428
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 82,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2vaeg9007tr62bxekxj33g",
"edge": 0.027929,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T16:05:52.165Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v8",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v7",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:05:52.165Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:32 UTC13c56…5bac
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 82,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2vaeg9007tr62bxekxj33g",
"edge": 0.027929,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T16:05:52.165Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.606879,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000534.v8",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000534.v7",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:32:05.719Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 60.7% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 12.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 16:05Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 16:05Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.64
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.