MQ-000535
Alaves v Valencia · La Liga · Tue 15 Sept · 18:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.92
- Market price
- 2.27
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 18:09 UTC63a52…128f
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9xaq400cqr6xnkzfdsjm5",
"edge": 0.103147,
"fairOdds": 1.92,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.27,
"modelProbability": 0.519599,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000535",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC8dc4a…f110
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtx9xaq400cqr6xnkzfdsjm5",
"edge": 0.103147,
"fairOdds": 1.92,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T18:09:27.623Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.27,
"modelProbability": 0.519599,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000535",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.27
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000535
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 2.23
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 06:09 UTCbeda1…fccc
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzmxz300ior6l4lcs347ji",
"edge": 0.086596,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.508876,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000535.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000535",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTCdd28a…e920
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxzmxz300ior6l4lcs347ji",
"edge": 0.086596,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T06:09:10.212Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.508876,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000535.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000535",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 50.9% · UNDER 49.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.23
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000535.v2
- Fair price
- 1.94
- Market price
- 2.06
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC7ae53…fc16
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2mx76v001mr62gao34ds0u",
"edge": 0.058734,
"fairOdds": 1.94,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.06,
"modelProbability": 0.516629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000535.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000535.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 16:02 UTC395a4…5dc8
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2mx76v001mr62gao34ds0u",
"edge": 0.058734,
"fairOdds": 1.94,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3luix003gr65jz2tcd4z3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 2.06,
"modelProbability": 0.516629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000535.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000535.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T16:02:05.961Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 51.7% · UNDER 48.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.06
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.