MQ-000537
Elche v Real Madrid · La Liga · Tue 15 Sept · 19:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.87
- Market price
- 1.29
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 19.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTCf4289…520f
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxgietr00a0r6jw9i96t4c8",
"edge": -0.19345,
"fairOdds": 1.87,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.53615,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000537",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTCaa676…fc87
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxgietr00a0r6jw9i96t4c8",
"edge": -0.19345,
"fairOdds": 1.87,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.53615,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000537",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.29
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000537
- Fair price
- 1.87
- Market price
- 1.26
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 21.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 15:11 UTC8a40e…f0e6
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzyebvs0062r6liqwq38lz5",
"edge": -0.215633,
"fairOdds": 1.87,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.26,
"modelProbability": 0.53615,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000537.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000537",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC1f79d…be39
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzyebvs0062r6liqwq38lz5",
"edge": -0.215633,
"fairOdds": 1.87,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T15:11:49.377Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.26,
"modelProbability": 0.53615,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000537.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000537",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 15:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 15:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.26
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000537.v2
- Fair price
- 1.84
- Market price
- 1.22
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 24 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 00:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 00:08 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 00:08 UTCc1da3…1745
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1wyo0w000qr6vismflq5w3",
"edge": -0.239839,
"fairOdds": 1.84,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T00:08:10.988Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.22,
"modelProbability": 0.542486,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000537.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000537.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T00:08:10.988Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTCf94a1…1ffc
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1wyo0w000qr6vismflq5w3",
"edge": -0.239839,
"fairOdds": 1.84,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T00:08:10.988Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.22,
"modelProbability": 0.542486,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000537.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000537.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 19.8% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 54.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 00:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 00:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.22
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.