PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000539
MQ-000539
Elche v Real Madrid · La Liga · Tue 15 Sept · 19:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
BTTS · YES · 62.3% · confidence 89
- Fair price
- 1.60
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Fri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 11 Sept · 21:14 UTC41cab…7557
41cab4bca6e6f770c61dbd40373b2867f8127bf57fad21c0f0bab358993c7557
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxgietr00a0r6jw9i96t4c8",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.6,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.623225,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC59112…348e
59112032544e83747952db251423c5b15ef316267d925c0eedc6d0d96224348e
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtxgietr00a0r6jw9i96t4c8",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.6,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:14:03.879Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.623225,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 62.3% · NO 37.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-11 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-11 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000539
BTTS · YES · 61.2% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.63
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 09:13 UTC4ee1f…bc81
4ee1fe43cd8b5e6dd2d8209096d934286bf067f2d2e7ca2bbc4da5cb52c7bc81
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty68drm00ier6l8uf8ctj3n",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.63,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.612361,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC58d46…6866
58d463e1ecb4a718fbc0e2f4f177bbd2f42766e8c11067d54248dc299c8e6866
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmty68drm00ier6l8uf8ctj3n",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.63,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:13:23.819Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.612361,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 61.2% · NO 38.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 09:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000539.v2
BTTS · YES · 62.5% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.60
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 12 Sept · 12:09 UTC42251…1325
4225173e696985ba98644ec39cc33d0e0cb6ddabfd239101e570f89ef6ec1325
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyci52e00dcr6llxfq5gds1",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.6,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.625225,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC2c310…36bf
2c3105570ecf1d5bd36d65d8ecae83ea9a9761fc72501788d743156d584536bf
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtyci52e00dcr6llxfq5gds1",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.6,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-12T12:09:08.313Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.625225,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 62.5% · NO 37.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-12 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000539.v3
BTTS · YES · 61.2% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.63
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 09:14 UTC1b5da…b8eb
1b5dad8e68aa931637dccfd1c7c56a60e68b59cc3ba6edcae5a27b957f90b8eb
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlnp1j008qr68poxcxnx4f",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.63,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.612327,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTCb6324…61f1
b6324ff5f7dd44e43addb2f3fe3b40692c70ca7f7927fc6b8a5e8e006be461f1
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzlnp1j008qr68poxcxnx4f",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.63,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T09:14:14.572Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.612327,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 61.2% · NO 38.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 09:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 09:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000539.v4
BTTS · YES · 62.5% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.60
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 12:09 UTC5e6a4…e7a2
5e6a4a582288b13fbf2b6d1bfe0c62f90bd273708afc0c511f8437779211e7a2
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrwzfl008mr64k4aq6autn",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.6,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.625188,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Lock recordTue 15 Sept · 17:32 UTC57318…a91a
573186d8fac815decaa7564a075999e693c37c6737694e17cf000af4cd3ea91a
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtzrwzfl008mr64k4aq6autn",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.6,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmts3lv31003mr65jhl7p7q39",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T12:09:42.721Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.625188,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000539.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000539.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T17:32:05.320Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 62.5% · NO 37.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.