MQ-000557
Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 16:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 17 Sept · 14:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 18:08 UTCd9c09…ef0b
{
"confidenceScore": 68,
"dataQualityScore": 15,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu04pppo009ar6jrcwtdt4ng",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypoa4000pr6p7rqq5rh5p",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T18:08:15.427Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000557",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T18:08:15.427Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 17 Sept · 14:32 UTCc2f2d…a7d5
{
"confidenceScore": 68,
"dataQualityScore": 15,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu04pppo009ar6jrcwtdt4ng",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypoa4000pr6p7rqq5rh5p",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T18:08:15.427Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000557",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T14:32:05.536Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000557
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 2.88
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 17.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 17 Sept · 14:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC2a052…8d6f
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k5mv3004mr62imvgvbfc7",
"edge": 0.17297,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypoa4000pr6p7rqq5rh5p",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.88,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000557.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000557",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 17 Sept · 14:32 UTC09fbd…d5d3
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k5mv3004mr62imvgvbfc7",
"edge": 0.17297,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypoa4000pr6p7rqq5rh5p",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.88,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000557.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000557",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T14:32:05.536Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.88
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000557.v2
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 3.30
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 20.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Published
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 17 Sept · 14:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC1d838…4488
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu5ip5yj0002r6fx1jd9xd1q",
"edge": 0.203123,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypoa4000pr6p7rqq5rh5p",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.3,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000557.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000557.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 17 Sept · 14:32 UTCba36c…fa2d
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu5ip5yj0002r6fx1jd9xd1q",
"edge": 0.203123,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypoa4000pr6p7rqq5rh5p",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.3,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000557.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000557.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T14:32:05.536Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.30
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.