MQ-000563
Crystal Palace v Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.75
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTCa5bcb…4222
{
"confidenceScore": 68,
"dataQualityScore": 16,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0baxkc0064r6wnlo9ni93h",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypptl0012r6p7nqn6m7gr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.571863,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000563",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 57.2% · DRAW 26.2% · AWAY 16.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000563
- Fair price
- 1.75
- Market price
- 1.38
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC21567…e427
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 31,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k5zfy006er62i2kaab2k3",
"edge": -0.081299,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypptl0012r6p7nqn6m7gr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.571863,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000563.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000563",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 57.2% · DRAW 26.2% · AWAY 16.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.38
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000563.v2
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 1.40
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 14.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC67f15…d6c8
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 31,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zliuk004ir6rux6rui7ze",
"edge": -0.145768,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypptl0012r6p7nqn6m7gr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.4,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000563.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000563.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.40
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.