PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000564

MQ-000564

Celtic v Ferencvarosi TC · UEFA Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 46.4% · confidence 68

בוטל

Fair price: 2.16
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published: Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC6632b…d901

6632bf79d58cf728d73a3f271e054fe39054c46142114ee102f252d5319bd901

{
 "confidenceScore": 68,
 "dataQualityScore": 15,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu0bb0qy006sr6wnzwdjs5pl",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.16,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtuypqii0019r6p7mvl38373",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.464025,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000564",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 46.4% · DRAW 26.1% · AWAY 27.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-13 21:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-13 21:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000564

1X2 · HOME · 46.6% · confidence 71 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 2.15
Market price: 1.65
Probability gap: 8.8 percentage points
Generated: Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published: Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTCe217b…30db

e217b24be94936400c26560040ec29f9cff696169157ed25d1854372b94f30db

{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k62a30072r62i8qxz7hix",
 "edge": -0.08839,
 "fairOdds": 2.15,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtuypqii0019r6p7mvl38373",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.465891,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000564.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000564",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 46.6% · DRAW 26.0% · AWAY 27.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-14 18:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-14 18:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.65
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000564.v2

1X2 · HOME · 48.2% · confidence 69 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.07
Market price: 1.70
Probability gap: 8.2 percentage points
Generated: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Published: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC27b61…86b0

27b6191bc0f52423895935663bdf4c3249de226b3329ed2534069756453f86b0

{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5ipzs8002ar6fxrr9y3h98",
 "edge": -0.0819,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtuypqii0019r6p7mvl38373",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000564.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000564.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.70
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.