MQ-000567
Sociedad v Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.18
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTCa3472…9d60
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0bb953008mr6wnj8owsxs7",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.18,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypshb001sr6p7p8r4qrh6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.458964,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000567",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 45.9% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 28.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000567
- Fair price
- 2.12
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 00:07 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 00:07 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 00:07 UTC33e2b…0213
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0hjtvi007kr6zyfute897j",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.12,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypshb001sr6p7p8r4qrh6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T00:07:38.414Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.472412,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000567.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000567",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T00:07:38.414Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 47.2% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 27.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 00:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 00:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000567.v2
- Fair price
- 2.32
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 06:11 UTCc6e55…d08e
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0ukyls00gmr6sdv7yxn091",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.32,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypshb001sr6p7p8r4qrh6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.430302,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000567.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000567.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T06:11:34.793Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 43.0% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 30.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 06:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000567.v3
- Fair price
- 2.32
- Market price
- 2.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC03411…c2e0
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k69at008yr62id8l1alrh",
"edge": 0.082043,
"fairOdds": 2.32,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypshb001sr6p7p8r4qrh6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.430302,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000567.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000567.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 43.0% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 30.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000567.v4
- Fair price
- 2.42
- Market price
- 2.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 00:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 00:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 00:08 UTC63b26…d6e2
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1wzys4004yr6vijodl7ze3",
"edge": 0.06437,
"fairOdds": 2.42,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypshb001sr6p7p8r4qrh6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T00:08:10.988Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.62,
"modelProbability": 0.412629,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000567.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000567.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T00:08:10.988Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.3% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 00:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 00:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 6 · previous MQ-000567.v5
- Fair price
- 2.46
- Market price
- 3.10
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Published
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTCd09e6…aa6c
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu5iq9fx0036r6fxkbpb8do4",
"edge": 0.103226,
"fairOdds": 2.46,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypshb001sr6p7p8r4qrh6",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.1,
"modelProbability": 0.406734,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000567.v6",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000567.v5",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 40.7% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 32.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.10
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.