MQ-000570
Lillestrom v Torreense · UEFA Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.54
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 13 Sept · 21:12 UTCee475…b949
{
"confidenceScore": 66,
"dataQualityScore": 10,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu0bbe3r00amr6wnd1g8fiyd",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.54,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypr26001fr6p7dq3mbyvx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.64791,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000570",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-13T21:12:52.869Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 64.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 11.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-13 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-13 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000570
- Fair price
- 1.54
- Market price
- 1.45
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Mon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 18:08 UTCa9562…2086
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 25,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu1k6cqz00acr62i51jxa6rx",
"edge": 0.017809,
"fairOdds": 1.54,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypr26001fr6p7dq3mbyvx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.64791,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000570.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000570",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-14T18:08:51.295Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 64.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 11.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-14 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.45
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000570.v2
- Fair price
- 1.54
- Market price
- 1.60
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTCd18bb…85ac
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu29veys007ur6qg7rpg8igy",
"edge": 0.060004,
"fairOdds": 1.54,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypr26001fr6p7dq3mbyvx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.6,
"modelProbability": 0.64791,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000570.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000570.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 64.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 11.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.60
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000570.v3
- Fair price
- 1.54
- Market price
- 1.50
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC1f46c…931d
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zlvsn006er6rugnnhae3f",
"edge": 0.020637,
"fairOdds": 1.54,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypr26001fr6p7dq3mbyvx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.5,
"modelProbability": 0.64791,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000570.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000570.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 64.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 11.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.50
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000570.v4
- Fair price
- 1.54
- Market price
- 1.62
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Published
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTCd4d63…43f7
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu5iqdm0003yr6fxgg3gor6s",
"edge": 0.066218,
"fairOdds": 1.54,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtuypr26001fr6p7dq3mbyvx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.62,
"modelProbability": 0.64791,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000570.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000570.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 64.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 11.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.62
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.