PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000584

MQ-000584

Brentford v Chelsea · Premier League · Fri 18 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 47.2% · confidence 94

בוטל

Fair price: 2.12
Market price: 2.87
Probability gap: 14.2 percentage points
Generated: Mon 14 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Published: Mon 14 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 14 Sept · 21:11 UTC32f32…9a88

32f32183c720163f816173b625474a6af1e19f4d020c7dd53bdfbe520b149a88

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu1qpwzd00c2r6jcml3l3kgz",
 "edge": 0.14207,
 "fairOdds": 2.12,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkqht003ir6dtl9x0se73",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T21:11:52.312Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.472412,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000584",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-14T21:11:52.312Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 47.2% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 27.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-14 21:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-14 21:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.87
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000584

1X2 · HOME · 48.9% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.04
Market price: 2.87
Probability gap: 15.9 percentage points
Generated: Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published: Tue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 06:08 UTC34d33…2f29

34d33e90aebb0aad1b2a0d6ad9e7abfce51545a37389ba7cac28abc3e5202f29

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu29vujb0096r6qgaw33e2v8",
 "edge": 0.158915,
 "fairOdds": 2.04,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkqht003ir6dtl9x0se73",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.87,
 "modelProbability": 0.489257,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000584.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000584",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T06:08:27.312Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.9% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 25.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-15 06:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-15 06:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.87
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000584.v2

1X2 · HOME · 47.2% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.12
Market price: 2.76
Probability gap: 12.8 percentage points
Generated: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Published: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTCd3ad3…bf39

d3ad3911097683a501b830b4dea40ead90135eda7f04b3c5ab8e5959f93bbf39

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4ljqpd002qr6tntctwx4kk",
 "edge": 0.127905,
 "fairOdds": 2.12,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkqht003ir6dtl9x0se73",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.76,
 "modelProbability": 0.472412,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000584.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000584.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 47.2% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 27.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.76
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.