PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000587

MQ-000587

Tottenham v Aston Villa · Premier League · Sat 19 Sept · 11:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 40.0% · confidence 91

בוטל

Fair price: 2.50
Market price: 3.65
Probability gap: 14.1 percentage points
Generated: Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
Published: Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC40819…2de4

40819eb0fd7a8b1789448d4df8710e36dfad7ced0fc0d4443c89b7172ef32de4

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2n0ioi00a4r62gieae2x6i",
 "edge": 0.140577,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.400201,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC0c32a…0e13

0c32a76ff43deed0cb2bb1a7ecfe5318b17a17e8f78f00cd0b6415f951470e13

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2n0ioi00a4r62gieae2x6i",
 "edge": 0.140577,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.400201,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:32:04.868Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-15 12:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-15 12:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.65
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000587

1X2 · HOME · 36.1% · confidence 74 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.77
Market price: 1.99
Probability gap: 11.7 percentage points
Generated: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Published: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTCf9f20…451c

f9f20f9f97f85cd62dbe8840ad305d5ad545fb8e9da4ac3bf7a9519b08a3451c

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4ljued003er6tn3avednx2",
 "edge": -0.116843,
 "fairOdds": 2.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.99,
 "modelProbability": 0.36083,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000587",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC16d63…caa0

16d631269addcd8f2e6ed31fa11b4565d6ab2b8a8ed98583b2dbeb8b4c07caa0

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4ljued003er6tn3avednx2",
 "edge": -0.116843,
 "fairOdds": 2.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.99,
 "modelProbability": 0.36083,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000587",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:32:04.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 36.1% · DRAW 29.0% · AWAY 34.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.99
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000587.v2

1X2 · HOME · 38.2% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.62
Market price: 1.99
Probability gap: 9.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Published: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC6b869…7776

6b869e4a9ff05594215b6dbbe36bf4176e7928475dafda235a2ad5aaebe67776

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5irn5f005mr6fx22szjmg8",
 "edge": -0.09531,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.99,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000587.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTCf9b26…5b46

f9b2691f51e62eba9fbb787441448079282139a6d9d815874f04ceb07c345b46

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5irn5f005mr6fx22szjmg8",
 "edge": -0.09531,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.99,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000587.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:32:04.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.99
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000587.v3

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 75 · reason: Official lineup

החטאה

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.94
Probability gap: 9.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 09:06 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 09:06 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:06 UTCf051d…870a

f051dbf9ac2fee9324ded7aff55112124fd853f498728283ad806b608bd3870a

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu861yrh004rr6cc9f4k9yw6",
 "edge": -0.093598,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:06:07.909Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000587.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:06:07.909Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 09:32 UTC04329…96b5

04329b52e9abbc258312e6dd6406ebc4fca2c647b809ab3a3bc5db97084896b5

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu861yrh004rr6cc9f4k9yw6",
 "edge": -0.093598,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtkr3g003or6dtf6ycvml9",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:06:07.909Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000587.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000587.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:32:04.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 09:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 09:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.94
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.