MQ-000590
Osasuna v Vallecano · La Liga · Sat 19 Sept · 12:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.08
- Market price
- 2.24
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 10:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 12:14 UTC9d494…23b0
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2n0qv700bsr62g70cnde8m",
"edge": 0.062618,
"fairOdds": 2.08,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl711005qr6dtoez6chv7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.24,
"modelProbability": 0.480393,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000590",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 10:02 UTCa1e43…5131
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2n0qv700bsr62g70cnde8m",
"edge": 0.062618,
"fairOdds": 2.08,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl711005qr6dtoez6chv7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T12:14:32.558Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.24,
"modelProbability": 0.480393,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000590",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T10:02:04.805Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.0% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 24.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 12:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.24
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000590
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 2.24
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 10:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC32581…18f2
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zmmwe0092r6rurpoanzj9",
"edge": 0.005365,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl711005qr6dtoez6chv7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.24,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000590.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000590",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 10:02 UTCd9f0c…2c01
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zmmwe0092r6rurpoanzj9",
"edge": 0.005365,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl711005qr6dtoez6chv7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.24,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000590.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000590",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T10:02:04.805Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.24
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000590.v2
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 2.54
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:06 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 10:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:06 UTC06cde…8cd8
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu8627c9005fr6ccb17183w1",
"edge": 0.048978,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl711005qr6dtoez6chv7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:06:07.909Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.54,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000590.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000590.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:06:07.909Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 10:02 UTCd4188…7948
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu8627c9005fr6ccb17183w1",
"edge": 0.048978,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl711005qr6dtoez6chv7",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:06:07.909Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.54,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000590.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000590.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T10:02:04.805Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.54
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.