PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000596
MQ-000596
Udinese v Cagliari · Serie A · Sat 19 Sept · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 73
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 2.22
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC10224…9d3c
10224eb6d432e06a0c4e12607996ae7cc17741f26817d1c94b7bbd3c08ef9d3c
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zmx6a00bcr6ruwmx6ddpd",
"edge": -0.029412,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.22,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTCe312b…63c9
e312b5a78e23d55f8165ac241d36405441d927a95682229afd5e57b1732f63c9
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zmx6a00bcr6ruwmx6ddpd",
"edge": -0.029412,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.22,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:02:00.822Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.22
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000596
1X2 · HOME · 36.1% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 2.77
- Market price
- 2.22
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC22310…b01a
223101ca0ac6f053abb3a904d4fc12a0d30a865bed3b898d2f9efb9ad57cb01a
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3vy6pb007sr6qnjhgqn1hy",
"edge": -0.066124,
"fairOdds": 2.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.22,
"modelProbability": 0.36083,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000596",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTC88ae7…7404
88ae76fc66772442c5f40c6ec29d9a881780f540ad8bd9a151a123c002497404
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3vy6pb007sr6qnjhgqn1hy",
"edge": -0.066124,
"fairOdds": 2.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.22,
"modelProbability": 0.36083,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000596",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:02:00.822Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 36.1% · DRAW 29.0% · AWAY 34.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 09:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 09:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.22
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000596.v2
1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 73 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 2.23
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC5a9e4…b155
5a9e400684cdd8dfbfd7f5f2b95aa34ba578eca2f26c6e057773b969975fb155
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48v94r0080r6jj2djvpbk2",
"edge": -0.027995,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000596.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTCe83fc…6f59
e83fcbbd8af473f1868642e4ba2b076997a0e7114c7db2123e849b9be1f16f59
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48v94r0080r6jj2djvpbk2",
"edge": -0.027995,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000596.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:02:00.822Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.23
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000596.v3
1X2 · HOME · 36.1% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 2.77
- Market price
- 2.23
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC5116a…1feb
5116a469f13407aebd7b6394ecccb70cec612accb9fbd794817c0f22fa261feb
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lk250004er6tn8eu4uy89",
"edge": -0.06473,
"fairOdds": 2.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.36083,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000596.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:02 UTC51e6d…a8bb
51e6de41cc8aba44029022425cdd3bf0f3d9932d09e0e4443643ad5075cba8bb
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lk250004er6tn8eu4uy89",
"edge": -0.06473,
"fairOdds": 2.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlgzj007ar6dt4w79sile",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.36083,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000596.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000596.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:02:00.822Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 36.1% · DRAW 29.0% · AWAY 34.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 21:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 21:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.23
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.