MQ-000602
Ein Frankfurt v Freiburg · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.66
- Market price
- 2.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC22ee7…921b
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zn9bt00f6r6ru1llemkrf",
"edge": 0.030193,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlr5b008yr6dtqa0xh6zl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.73,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000602",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:32 UTCec266…1fae
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zn9bt00f6r6ru1llemkrf",
"edge": 0.030193,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlr5b008yr6dtqa0xh6zl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.73,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000602",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:32:04.916Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000602
- Fair price
- 2.73
- Market price
- 2.34
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 09:12 UTCbbde3…d4c5
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3vyi13008qr6qnftc1q2v8",
"edge": -0.038077,
"fairOdds": 2.73,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlr5b008yr6dtqa0xh6zl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.34,
"modelProbability": 0.366313,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000602.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000602",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:32 UTC6eb40…c243
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3vyi13008qr6qnftc1q2v8",
"edge": -0.038077,
"fairOdds": 2.73,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlr5b008yr6dtqa0xh6zl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T09:12:18.570Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.34,
"modelProbability": 0.366313,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000602.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000602",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:32:04.916Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 36.6% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 36.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 09:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 09:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.34
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000602.v2
- Fair price
- 2.66
- Market price
- 2.72
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC67198…d913
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lk8d6005wr6tnpm0im13p",
"edge": 0.028681,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlr5b008yr6dtqa0xh6zl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.72,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000602.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000602.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 11:32 UTC84a4b…92a6
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lk8d6005wr6tnpm0im13p",
"edge": 0.028681,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlr5b008yr6dtqa0xh6zl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.72,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000602.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000602.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T11:32:04.916Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 21:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 21:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.72
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.