MQ-000614
Newcastle v Hull · Premier League · Sat 19 Sept · 14:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 1.59
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 17.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTCf7a73…26bc
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zny2400m6r6rusnsx59ti",
"edge": -0.172621,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtkt0o0046r6dti5f99jbl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.59,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000614",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC9a38f…68b9
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zny2400m6r6rusnsx59ti",
"edge": -0.172621,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtkt0o0046r6dti5f99jbl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.59,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000614",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.59
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000614
- Fair price
- 2.62
- Market price
- 1.60
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 21.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTCe18b2…9dc4
{
"confidenceScore": 54,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu865l0i004ar60njsda8bnt",
"edge": -0.213926,
"fairOdds": 2.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtkt0o0046r6dti5f99jbl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.6,
"modelProbability": 0.382014,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000614.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000614",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTCe0f7d…d89a
{
"confidenceScore": 54,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu865l0i004ar60njsda8bnt",
"edge": -0.213926,
"fairOdds": 2.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtkt0o0046r6dti5f99jbl",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.6,
"modelProbability": 0.382014,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000614.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000614",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.60
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.