MQ-000618
Ath Bilbao v Alaves · La Liga · Sat 19 Sept · 14:15 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 1.64
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 17.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTCf4ebf…419e
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zo7qj00osr6ruebnnvg3a",
"edge": -0.176099,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000618",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC54ba9…c69f
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zo7qj00osr6ruebnnvg3a",
"edge": -0.176099,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000618",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.64
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000618
- Fair price
- 2.39
- Market price
- 1.64
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 15.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC0eb3a…c622
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f2sra006or6lye9tgmgzm",
"edge": -0.154634,
"fairOdds": 2.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.418728,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000618.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000618",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTCc3734…c41b
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f2sra006or6lye9tgmgzm",
"edge": -0.154634,
"fairOdds": 2.39,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.418728,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000618.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000618",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.9% · DRAW 27.7% · AWAY 30.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.64
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.